"GLOBAL WATCH LIST": 08SEP TO 12SEP 2008

WORLD MARKETS
All the major stock markets seem to have turned weak except India in the short term at least.

U.S. DOW(11221): faces stiff resistance in 11400 zone. It could breach the support in 10800 zone and slide down towards 10000 in days ahead.

U.K. FTSE(5241): contrary to the outlook last week, FTSE100 breached its crucial support at 5300. Now it is headed towards support 5100. If this support is also breached then next support zone is 4800.

JAPAN NIKKEI(12212): has turned weaker and is unlikely to hold support at 12000. Then it is headed down towards 10000 levels.

CHINA HONGKONG, HANGSENG(19933): has also turned weak and could be headed towards 16000 if support at 18700 is not respected.

CHINA SHANGHAI(2202): was already very weak and has also broken its lower support at 2300 levels. Now it could be headed towards 2000 in days ahead.

INDIA BSE SENSEX(14483): stands apart among the lot here in terms of strength in the short term. But still in a range between 13700 and 15500. Breakout on either side would determine the trend.

CRUDE OIL
It is hovering below its crucial level of $110. Though very unlikely, a rise above $120 only would surely be a cause of concern. In the short term, OPEC meeting on Tuesday would set the tone for it. But in view of the slowing growth signals all around, it is likely to breach $100 level in days or weeks ahead, confirming a downtrend in the long term.
It may be noted here that the fall below $100 may not help stock markets much in the long term because it would happen due to fall in demand eventually, confirming the recession!

CURRENCIES
US dollar(USD) has taken the centre stage from Crude Oil. It has breached 1.43 level against EURO which is a confirmation of impending strength in USD in medium term.


GOLD
Gold prices are also weakening due to the rise in USD. It may remain sideways with $770 as medium term support. In not very long term, it is likely to move down towards $700 due to suspected deflation in some major economies.

ECONOMIC DATA
There are more signs of economic slowdown emerging from the US, as well as U.K recently. The continuous rise in unemployment in the US has turned all eyes towards its overall economic data.
On financial side, there are some plans to bail out their housing-loan banks but that may not mitigate the problems of rising unemployment and inflation. Pressure is on containing inflation by raising interest rates, and that could put a squeeze on liquidity which offsets slowdown in economic activities and rise in unemployment again.
The big event this month would be the FED interest rate decision on the 16th.

For educational purposes, the US Economic Calendar has been added at the bottom of this page. But it is not necessary for a lay trader to focus much on every detail.
( In the calendar, read 'Vol' as volatility caused and 'Cons' as consensus/expectation).

INDIA SPECIFIC
With signs of inflation cooling and the recent breakthrough at the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) meeting may infuse more confidence among the Foreign Institutional Investors (FII's) in India and more investment for long term may come in the due course of time. But the medium term trend could be dictated by the global markets situation only.
However, our markets may react very positively in the early part of next week. Yet, overall it is a moment of cautious optimism in the near term!