Short Term Trend: An attempt is being made to turn upwards.
Medium Term Trend: Sideways with some positive bias.
Long Term Trend: The ongoing correction is expected to continue in finally, a secular Bull Market.
BSE SENSEX
15000: Resistance & Target. (Current Range Breakout Level). Otherwise, a reversal back from here, or from below this zone could pull us down towards 12500 again. So, a close above here is needed to turn the near term sufficiently positive.
14800: Resistance & Target. A close above here could help us achieve the next target above.
(Previous Close or CMP 14565)
14000: Support. But now, this could turn out to be somewhat weaker a support.
13700: Support! (Current Range Breakdown level). Bulls have a chance of speedy recovery until this support is respected. Stop Loss for short term LONG positions be initiated on a close below here.
NIFTY
4480: Resistance. (Breakout level). Read same as Sensex above.
4425: Resistance.
(Previous Close or CMP 4360)
4200: Support. This could also turn out to be a weak support now.
4115: Support! (Current Range breakdown level). Bulls have a chance until this level is respected. Stop Loss for short term LONG positions be initiated on a close below here.
CONCLUSION
Most of the world markets including ours, are trading sideways in a range with very little participation. Our range is from 13700 (nifty 4115) levels to 15000 (nifty 4480) levels. Therefore, we need to breakout of this range to make a decisive move in short to medium term.
But always remember that we are in a bear market and all the rallies have their limitation. Our current upside limit is 17000 for medium term. We are perhaps, trying to keep heart in a hope of some reasonable quarterly earnings next month. But the US (the UK also now) economic situation could keep playing villain for a longer time. Yet, the inflation and crude oil price could bring some respite for all in near future, perhaps (Please read the Watch List below).
Keep a watch on our daily UPDATES for fresh LONG or SHORT calls, if any. For the moment, we do not have any suggestion except that Existing short term LONG positions may be held as long as 13700(4115) is held.
Aug 31, 2008
WATCHLIST; 01SEP TO 05SEP 2008
There is no use running after every news and look for a "kill" unless you are an insider.Tracking just this bare minimum, weekly updated watch list below should suffice to determine the future market trend. However, you can add news or info that are specific to the scrips you normally trade in. But keep it minimum possible.
WORLD MARKETS
U.S. DJIA (11544): Still consolidating in a range of 11200-11700. Immediate supports are at 11475 and then 11350. My favored view is that it could spend another week in sideways consolidation. Only a breach below 11000 levels would take to 10000 levels in weeks ahead -which seems unlikely soon. Upside is capped around 12000 levels in the short term.
U.K. FTSE 100(5637): Faces immediate resistance around 5730-5745. But the favoured view is that it could surge ahead to reach 6000 in days ahead. Supports are at 5550 and then 5475. Failure of supports can drag it down towards 5100 again.
JAPAN NIKKEI (13073): Faces resistance at 13120 and then 13230. Failure to move above here would drag it to 12600 and then 12000 levels.
CHINA HANGSENG (21262): Contrary to our view last week, it moved up across 21000 levels and is showing resilience. Surpassing of resistance at 21900 level would project higher targets of 25000 in days ahead. But a fall below 20800 would pull it down again.
CHINA SHANGHAI(2397): Had been able to maintain above 2300 last week. Needs to breakout of the range of 2300 and 2500 to determine a trend. It is the most battered among all the world markets but showing no signs of reversal either.
INDIA BSE SENSEX( 14565): Needs to breakout of the range of 13700 and 15000 to determine a trend.
CRUDE OIL
Though very unlikely, a move beyond $122-125 zone would again take it towards $150. But my favoured view is a reversal from this 122-125 zone to move down again to 110 levels after hurricane Gustav. Yet, a rising oil price graph could dampen the mood in markets next week.
INDIA INFLATION
The figures edged down a bit to 12.40 from 12.63 (tolerance level is below 6). Another down tick this week could bring a lot of optimism in the markets on Friday next. Any hope of inflation cooling down...is yet to be seen! Still the consensus is on uptick in interest rates in near future.
CURRENCY
US$ is unlikely to budge in near term; yet, remain range bound with positive bias. Oil will still play the main role in near term.
US DATA
Watching this on regular basis could be mind boggling unless you are a currency trader. But occassional peek at it is always useful. So, why not this week!
US markets are closed on Monday. They have Jobless data on Thursday. Hourly earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment data on Friday.
Also the UK-BoE and EU-ECB have interest decisions this Thursday. They also have inflation rising there. Lets see what these central banks have to say this time. Credit squeeze??
WORLD MARKETS
U.S. DJIA (11544): Still consolidating in a range of 11200-11700. Immediate supports are at 11475 and then 11350. My favored view is that it could spend another week in sideways consolidation. Only a breach below 11000 levels would take to 10000 levels in weeks ahead -which seems unlikely soon. Upside is capped around 12000 levels in the short term.
U.K. FTSE 100(5637): Faces immediate resistance around 5730-5745. But the favoured view is that it could surge ahead to reach 6000 in days ahead. Supports are at 5550 and then 5475. Failure of supports can drag it down towards 5100 again.
JAPAN NIKKEI (13073): Faces resistance at 13120 and then 13230. Failure to move above here would drag it to 12600 and then 12000 levels.
CHINA HANGSENG (21262): Contrary to our view last week, it moved up across 21000 levels and is showing resilience. Surpassing of resistance at 21900 level would project higher targets of 25000 in days ahead. But a fall below 20800 would pull it down again.
CHINA SHANGHAI(2397): Had been able to maintain above 2300 last week. Needs to breakout of the range of 2300 and 2500 to determine a trend. It is the most battered among all the world markets but showing no signs of reversal either.
INDIA BSE SENSEX( 14565): Needs to breakout of the range of 13700 and 15000 to determine a trend.
CRUDE OIL
Though very unlikely, a move beyond $122-125 zone would again take it towards $150. But my favoured view is a reversal from this 122-125 zone to move down again to 110 levels after hurricane Gustav. Yet, a rising oil price graph could dampen the mood in markets next week.
INDIA INFLATION
The figures edged down a bit to 12.40 from 12.63 (tolerance level is below 6). Another down tick this week could bring a lot of optimism in the markets on Friday next. Any hope of inflation cooling down...is yet to be seen! Still the consensus is on uptick in interest rates in near future.
CURRENCY
US$ is unlikely to budge in near term; yet, remain range bound with positive bias. Oil will still play the main role in near term.
US DATA
Watching this on regular basis could be mind boggling unless you are a currency trader. But occassional peek at it is always useful. So, why not this week!
US markets are closed on Monday. They have Jobless data on Thursday. Hourly earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment data on Friday.
Also the UK-BoE and EU-ECB have interest decisions this Thursday. They also have inflation rising there. Lets see what these central banks have to say this time. Credit squeeze??
RECOMMENDATIONS; 01SEP TO 05SEP 2008
The levels given here are applicable on "closing basis". So, plan your trades accordingly. Do not wait for a precise hit of target but square off well before targets without any heartburn.
We intend to give you the best possible outlook and strategy, but trading in markets is risky and we do not guarantee profits or take any responsibility for losses. Therefore, you may use your own discretion. Those who do not understand derivatives, may not trade according to our F&O calls.
RELIANCE (2136)
It edged lower to 2050 last week and bounced back. Now it could be moving towards 2175 or 2215 in near term. Failure to move past 2175 could pull it down to 2050 and 2000 levels again. Move above 2215 would take it to 2255 levels or higher. But it would still be a bear market rally with limited upside -a reminder to Reliance Fans! Trade accordingly.
The existing short term LONG positions may keep a final Stop Loss at 2050.
INFOSYSTCH (1749)
A narrow consolidation below its crucial resistance at 1750-1760 levels is a bullish sign. On a close above this band it could be the leader of the market in near to medium term.
Buy on a close above 1750 or on declines with a stop loss at 1635. Hold it for targets of 1800 and then 1875 in near term.
SBIN (1404)
Did not breach 1300 levels and moved up strongly on Friday. Now it could be headed towards 1500 and then 1575. Supports would be 1300 and 1250. existing LONG position may hold with a stop loss at 1250.
You must have observed that our stop loss levels are too far below the present levels. Keeping in mind the current overall trend, in the event of any fall, the markets have a good chance of retraction from lower levels (13700 of SENSEX and 4100 of NIFTY). In such a scenario, it is worth buying at lower levels and remain with the trend. Otherwise, wait for our calls (if any) from time to time given on UPDATES.
NIFTY FUTURES
We had given buy call in our Updates last Thursday. Keep holding on to those positions, and wait for our next bus to stop by you! In other words, recommendations if any, would be posted on UPDATES because there are none for the moment from us.
Wishing you a happy trading week!
We intend to give you the best possible outlook and strategy, but trading in markets is risky and we do not guarantee profits or take any responsibility for losses. Therefore, you may use your own discretion. Those who do not understand derivatives, may not trade according to our F&O calls.
RELIANCE (2136)
It edged lower to 2050 last week and bounced back. Now it could be moving towards 2175 or 2215 in near term. Failure to move past 2175 could pull it down to 2050 and 2000 levels again. Move above 2215 would take it to 2255 levels or higher. But it would still be a bear market rally with limited upside -a reminder to Reliance Fans! Trade accordingly.
The existing short term LONG positions may keep a final Stop Loss at 2050.
INFOSYSTCH (1749)
A narrow consolidation below its crucial resistance at 1750-1760 levels is a bullish sign. On a close above this band it could be the leader of the market in near to medium term.
Buy on a close above 1750 or on declines with a stop loss at 1635. Hold it for targets of 1800 and then 1875 in near term.
SBIN (1404)
Did not breach 1300 levels and moved up strongly on Friday. Now it could be headed towards 1500 and then 1575. Supports would be 1300 and 1250. existing LONG position may hold with a stop loss at 1250.
You must have observed that our stop loss levels are too far below the present levels. Keeping in mind the current overall trend, in the event of any fall, the markets have a good chance of retraction from lower levels (13700 of SENSEX and 4100 of NIFTY). In such a scenario, it is worth buying at lower levels and remain with the trend. Otherwise, wait for our calls (if any) from time to time given on UPDATES.
NIFTY FUTURES
We had given buy call in our Updates last Thursday. Keep holding on to those positions, and wait for our next bus to stop by you! In other words, recommendations if any, would be posted on UPDATES because there are none for the moment from us.
Wishing you a happy trading week!
Aug 24, 2008
WEEKLY INDEX OUTLOOK 25AUG TO 29AUG 2008
Short Term Trend: Negative bias.
Medium Term Trend: Neutral.
Long Term Trend: A correction or primary downtrend underway in finally, a Long term bull market.
BSE SENSEX
Resistance 15120; and a probable target also. Near term turns positive above here. Otherwise, go short for targets of supports below, if reverses from here.
Resistance 14835; a probable target also. Go short for the targets of supports below, if fails here.
(Previous Close or CMP 14401)
Support 14000; a probable reversal area between 14000 and 13700; but signs of negativity also start below here.
Support 13700; hope for the bulls if this level is respected! close below here can drag markets to 12500 levels again.
NIFTY
Resistance 4525; and a probable target also. Near term turns positive above here. Otherwise, go short for targets of supports below, if fails here.
Resistance 4445; and a probable target also. Otherwise, go short for the targets of supports below, if fails here.
(Previous close or CMP 4327)
Support 4220; a probable reversal area between 4200-4100. Negative signs emerge below here.
Support 4100; Hope for the bulls until this level is respected. A close below here can drag markets to 3900 levels again and cause negativity for medium term as well.
CONCLUSION
Volatility is expected this week though, there is not enough participation to say very high. Markets' inability to show strength and Nifty closing below 4300 last week, seems to have turned short term trend negative and medium term neutral. In other words, both bulls and the bears are in a tug of war. The clearer picture for near term would emerge by this Friday, hopefully!
In the absence of its own agenda, our market seems to have been taking diktats from the US and the Asian markets(We might have our own agenda in the form of nuke deal and economic reforms in days to come). There was lot of optimism in the US markets due to falling crude oil prices and some soothing words from Mr. Warren Buffet -the greatest successful investor of our times. But the Asian Markets do not portray a hopeful picture in near to medium term. The euphoria of Olympics there might die down soon to remind the real picture of slowing growth. Similarly, the optimism in the U.S. could also be short lived because the housing market there has not shown any signs of bottoming out and the recession may confirm its presence in days to come.
Coming back to our markets again, we advise squaring off of the existing short term long positions with every rise as we expect markets to move up, "in early part atleast", this week, in view of the US optimism and falling crude oil prices (Please also see our watchlist for the week below).
Short to Medium term buying (cautiously) is recommended in the zone between 4250-4150 of Nifty. Stop Loss for all the Long possitions is a close below 4100.
We wish you a happy trading!
Please keep a watch on our daily updates every morning.
Medium Term Trend: Neutral.
Long Term Trend: A correction or primary downtrend underway in finally, a Long term bull market.
BSE SENSEX
Resistance 15120; and a probable target also. Near term turns positive above here. Otherwise, go short for targets of supports below, if reverses from here.
Resistance 14835; a probable target also. Go short for the targets of supports below, if fails here.
(Previous Close or CMP 14401)
Support 14000; a probable reversal area between 14000 and 13700; but signs of negativity also start below here.
Support 13700; hope for the bulls if this level is respected! close below here can drag markets to 12500 levels again.
NIFTY
Resistance 4525; and a probable target also. Near term turns positive above here. Otherwise, go short for targets of supports below, if fails here.
Resistance 4445; and a probable target also. Otherwise, go short for the targets of supports below, if fails here.
(Previous close or CMP 4327)
Support 4220; a probable reversal area between 4200-4100. Negative signs emerge below here.
Support 4100; Hope for the bulls until this level is respected. A close below here can drag markets to 3900 levels again and cause negativity for medium term as well.
CONCLUSION
Volatility is expected this week though, there is not enough participation to say very high. Markets' inability to show strength and Nifty closing below 4300 last week, seems to have turned short term trend negative and medium term neutral. In other words, both bulls and the bears are in a tug of war. The clearer picture for near term would emerge by this Friday, hopefully!
In the absence of its own agenda, our market seems to have been taking diktats from the US and the Asian markets(We might have our own agenda in the form of nuke deal and economic reforms in days to come). There was lot of optimism in the US markets due to falling crude oil prices and some soothing words from Mr. Warren Buffet -the greatest successful investor of our times. But the Asian Markets do not portray a hopeful picture in near to medium term. The euphoria of Olympics there might die down soon to remind the real picture of slowing growth. Similarly, the optimism in the U.S. could also be short lived because the housing market there has not shown any signs of bottoming out and the recession may confirm its presence in days to come.
Coming back to our markets again, we advise squaring off of the existing short term long positions with every rise as we expect markets to move up, "in early part atleast", this week, in view of the US optimism and falling crude oil prices (Please also see our watchlist for the week below).
Short to Medium term buying (cautiously) is recommended in the zone between 4250-4150 of Nifty. Stop Loss for all the Long possitions is a close below 4100.
We wish you a happy trading!
Please keep a watch on our daily updates every morning.
WATCHLIST 25AUG TO 29AUG 2008
WORLD MARKETS
(U.S.) DOW (11628) Likely to move up towards the resistance levels of 11700-11800. But long term still remains bearish. On reversal, it would again head down towards 11000-11200 support band. Penetration of this support band would give it a landing at 10000 levels.
(U.K.) FTSE 100 (5506) rallied from its crucial support at 5300. Surpassing of resistance 5600, though less likely amid low volumes, would project a target of 6000 levels.
(JAPAN) NIKKEI (12666) breached its crucial 12900 level and now likely to move down towards 12000 in days ahead.
(CHINA Hongkong) HANGSENG(20393) breached 21000. Bearish connotations point towards a fall towards 17000 in days ahead.
(CHINA) SHANGHAI (2405) Continued bearish tendency can cause the breach of support at 2300 levels. Then headed towards 2000 levels in medium to short term.
(INDIA) BSE SENSEX (14401) is in negative bias in short term. If 14000-13700 support band is respected then short term uptrend may continue. But still in a primary down trend. It is a correction in a long term Bull market finally.
CRUDE OIL
Short Term Outlook: It reversed from the levels that we had expected in our UPDATES post of 21st August. Now it is again headed down towards $110 support. This support is also likely to be breached for a target of $100.
Medium to Long Term: Once the Beijing Olympics euphoria is over, demand for oil is expected to fall in China, the major consumer. This could help breach the crucial and technical trend deciding support of $100, offsetting the slowing of growth in China as well.
This falling crude oil price is only helping us to look sideways from the real problem i.e., the U.S. housing market. Falling oil price can not help much until housing bottoms out -the signs of which are nowhere to be seen, yet!
INFLATION
Recently there have been talks of some visible signs of inflation cooling down in the U.S.??
But here in India, it has surged up to 12.63 (tolerance level is below 6). Now economists are talking of its peaking at 14 instead of 13. Interest rates may be revised upwards if this situation continues. Credit squeeze?
CURRENCY
US$ weakened last week but may strengthen again. Crude and Dollar offsetting strength and weakness in each other, one by one!
INDIA SPECIFIC
Once the J&K tempers cool down, discussion of ecnomic reforms may hot up. But trade unions are also waiting for that moment to show their presence, though not being given special heed by the media. However, the Indo-US nuke deal may change the agenda for the markets by next month.
Wishing you a happy trading week!
(U.S.) DOW (11628) Likely to move up towards the resistance levels of 11700-11800. But long term still remains bearish. On reversal, it would again head down towards 11000-11200 support band. Penetration of this support band would give it a landing at 10000 levels.
(U.K.) FTSE 100 (5506) rallied from its crucial support at 5300. Surpassing of resistance 5600, though less likely amid low volumes, would project a target of 6000 levels.
(JAPAN) NIKKEI (12666) breached its crucial 12900 level and now likely to move down towards 12000 in days ahead.
(CHINA Hongkong) HANGSENG(20393) breached 21000. Bearish connotations point towards a fall towards 17000 in days ahead.
(CHINA) SHANGHAI (2405) Continued bearish tendency can cause the breach of support at 2300 levels. Then headed towards 2000 levels in medium to short term.
(INDIA) BSE SENSEX (14401) is in negative bias in short term. If 14000-13700 support band is respected then short term uptrend may continue. But still in a primary down trend. It is a correction in a long term Bull market finally.
CRUDE OIL
Short Term Outlook: It reversed from the levels that we had expected in our UPDATES post of 21st August. Now it is again headed down towards $110 support. This support is also likely to be breached for a target of $100.
Medium to Long Term: Once the Beijing Olympics euphoria is over, demand for oil is expected to fall in China, the major consumer. This could help breach the crucial and technical trend deciding support of $100, offsetting the slowing of growth in China as well.
This falling crude oil price is only helping us to look sideways from the real problem i.e., the U.S. housing market. Falling oil price can not help much until housing bottoms out -the signs of which are nowhere to be seen, yet!
INFLATION
Recently there have been talks of some visible signs of inflation cooling down in the U.S.??
But here in India, it has surged up to 12.63 (tolerance level is below 6). Now economists are talking of its peaking at 14 instead of 13. Interest rates may be revised upwards if this situation continues. Credit squeeze?
CURRENCY
US$ weakened last week but may strengthen again. Crude and Dollar offsetting strength and weakness in each other, one by one!
INDIA SPECIFIC
Once the J&K tempers cool down, discussion of ecnomic reforms may hot up. But trade unions are also waiting for that moment to show their presence, though not being given special heed by the media. However, the Indo-US nuke deal may change the agenda for the markets by next month.
Wishing you a happy trading week!
STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE WEEK 25 TO 29AUG 2008
RELIANCE (2245)
In view of the uncertainty in the markets, Reliance could also edge down towards 2150 and 2100. Buy it on reversal from these levels with a stop loss at 2090. However, short term long positions may be squared off on every rise as it could find difficulty in moving above 2310 and 2376 in the short term.
SBIN (1344)
Moved lower last week as expected. In the event of further weakness in the markets, it has a hope of halting at 1250 levels on decline. reversal from these levels or present levels would be an opportunity to buy for a medium term target of 1500 or above. Decline below 1250 levels could pull it further down to 1000 levels. Existing medium to long term 'long' positions may place a stop loss at 1240.
INFOSYSTCH (1696)
Overall wekness could pull it down towards 1600 levels in the near term. As mentioned last week, fresh long positions may only be initiated on a close above 1760. However, the continued consolidation in this stock can help it make an upmove beyond 1760 in the next few weeks if 1500 level is not breached.
NIFTY FUTURES
No definite outlook for this week. Trading calls, if any, would be posted on UPDATES everyday.
The existing Long positions in August series are to be squared off obviously, on every rise, as markets are likely to show some strength in early part next week. Trade as per the Nifty spot levels given in the 'Weekly Index Outlook' above.
In view of the uncertainty in the markets, Reliance could also edge down towards 2150 and 2100. Buy it on reversal from these levels with a stop loss at 2090. However, short term long positions may be squared off on every rise as it could find difficulty in moving above 2310 and 2376 in the short term.
SBIN (1344)
Moved lower last week as expected. In the event of further weakness in the markets, it has a hope of halting at 1250 levels on decline. reversal from these levels or present levels would be an opportunity to buy for a medium term target of 1500 or above. Decline below 1250 levels could pull it further down to 1000 levels. Existing medium to long term 'long' positions may place a stop loss at 1240.
INFOSYSTCH (1696)
Overall wekness could pull it down towards 1600 levels in the near term. As mentioned last week, fresh long positions may only be initiated on a close above 1760. However, the continued consolidation in this stock can help it make an upmove beyond 1760 in the next few weeks if 1500 level is not breached.
NIFTY FUTURES
No definite outlook for this week. Trading calls, if any, would be posted on UPDATES everyday.
The existing Long positions in August series are to be squared off obviously, on every rise, as markets are likely to show some strength in early part next week. Trade as per the Nifty spot levels given in the 'Weekly Index Outlook' above.
Aug 17, 2008
OUTLOOK 18 TO 22 AUGUST 2008
SENSEX
Resistance15575. We can b/o above here, "only" if 14400 is not breached.
Resistance15260. It is a resistance zone above here.
(14724 CMP)
Support14400. Bullish trend intact if it is not breached. Buying is recommended up to this level. No fresh long positions on a close below here.
Support14000 is crucial support(SL for long positions). Weakness below here.
NIFTY
Resistance4650 could be surpassed in near term "only" if 4300 is not breached.
Resistance4550.
(4431 CMP)
Support4300. If not breached then bullish uptrend intact. Buying is recommended up to this level. No fresh longs on a close below here.
Support4100 is the crucial (SL for long positions). Weakness sets in below here.
CONCLUSION
Would these resistances be surpassed this week or will these supports hold -no clue at all! The trend is unclear for the week. But the given levels should certainly help you in trading. Go gung ho for near term target of 5100 if 4300 is not breached this week.
Happy Trading!
p.s. Our Watchlist can always be helpful in determining a trend. The page is updated by Monday morning latest. Also keep a watch on updates and Stock Recommendation.
Aug 10, 2008
11 AUGUST TO 14 AUGUST
We are not publishing the graphical outlook this time so as to make it very simple and clear. Please read and mark the following levels carefully and do your homework to prepare a strategy for the week. We hope that you are benefiting from our outlook as it has been up to the mark so far. The given levels are on closing basis.
Please also note that sometimes the given levels of Sensex and Nifty may not synchronize with each other but they are valid as they are. This aspect can be helpful in determining a trend visible in both or either of the indexes.
SENSEX
15875 is upper target hopefully! Breakout above 15800 itself would open the target 17000 but...?
15425 is first target and resistance.
(15168 is the current level or CMP)
14400 is first support. Buy on declines to here with stop loss of 14000 or 13700.
13700 is second support. A close below 14000 itself would imply a gradual (not crash) move towards 12500 again in the "medium term"!
NIFTY
4775 is upper target. Breakout above here would open the targets of 5100 but...?
4620 is first resistance. Needs to close above here to achieve the next target.
(4530 the current level or CMP)
4450 first support
4300 is second support. Buy on declines to this level with 4300 itself the short term stop loss.
Inability to cross the first resistance and/or reversal from upper targets would be a cue to short sell for short term gains, then utilising the given resistances below as supports.
There is a strong buying pressure visible in our own charts. The downtrend would weaken if we close above 15425, implying that we may not touch the recent lows in medium term and would rather remain above 14000. But this outlook also points towards a sideways market in the medium term. Therefore, we must close above 15800/15875 to breakout of this outlook.
DOW has shown some resilience but that does not mitigate the overall financial woes of the US financial health. It is just a bear market rally there. Fall in crude oil is the the only cause of optimism at the moment.
CONCLUSION is that the whole move upwards would require triggers. Otherwise it could be a boring market in near term. But the indicators surely imply now that we are not in for a primary downtrend unless something disastrous occurs. So, the focus may shift now to sectorwise and scripwise movement. There are many sectors and scrips battered down to mouth watering levels. So, Long term investors may start nibbling into them. Inflation figures, ocassional news from PSU's privatisation and Crude oil movement could initiate the main triggers.
Wishing you a happy trading week!
It is a 4 day week, 15th being the Independence day!
Please also keep a watch on updates and reviews occasionally.
Please also note that sometimes the given levels of Sensex and Nifty may not synchronize with each other but they are valid as they are. This aspect can be helpful in determining a trend visible in both or either of the indexes.
SENSEX
15875 is upper target hopefully! Breakout above 15800 itself would open the target 17000 but...?
15425 is first target and resistance.
(15168 is the current level or CMP)
14400 is first support. Buy on declines to here with stop loss of 14000 or 13700.
13700 is second support. A close below 14000 itself would imply a gradual (not crash) move towards 12500 again in the "medium term"!
NIFTY
4775 is upper target. Breakout above here would open the targets of 5100 but...?
4620 is first resistance. Needs to close above here to achieve the next target.
(4530 the current level or CMP)
4450 first support
4300 is second support. Buy on declines to this level with 4300 itself the short term stop loss.
Inability to cross the first resistance and/or reversal from upper targets would be a cue to short sell for short term gains, then utilising the given resistances below as supports.
There is a strong buying pressure visible in our own charts. The downtrend would weaken if we close above 15425, implying that we may not touch the recent lows in medium term and would rather remain above 14000. But this outlook also points towards a sideways market in the medium term. Therefore, we must close above 15800/15875 to breakout of this outlook.
DOW has shown some resilience but that does not mitigate the overall financial woes of the US financial health. It is just a bear market rally there. Fall in crude oil is the the only cause of optimism at the moment.
CONCLUSION is that the whole move upwards would require triggers. Otherwise it could be a boring market in near term. But the indicators surely imply now that we are not in for a primary downtrend unless something disastrous occurs. So, the focus may shift now to sectorwise and scripwise movement. There are many sectors and scrips battered down to mouth watering levels. So, Long term investors may start nibbling into them. Inflation figures, ocassional news from PSU's privatisation and Crude oil movement could initiate the main triggers.
Wishing you a happy trading week!
It is a 4 day week, 15th being the Independence day!
Please also keep a watch on updates and reviews occasionally.
Aug 8, 2008
UPDATES
This page would be updated by Sunday evening.
Please see the archives for earlier posts.
Thank you!
Please see the archives for earlier posts.
Thank you!
Aug 3, 2008
WEEKLY OUTLOOK 04AUG TO 08AUG
(Please click on charts to enlarge)
We might not have to look again down towards 12500 in the near term at least!!
BSE SENSEX (14657)
15130 and 15345 are targets as well as resistances for the week. A firm close above 15345 would offer the target of 15800 in very near term. In the event of reversal from these resistances we may stay sideways with negative bias for few more weeks. Supports for the week would be 13800 and 13500 respectively. Hold the longs until 13500 is breached.
(The more optimistic view would be that SENSEX closing above just 15000 levels itself may push us up towards 17500 by next weekend. On the other hand, a breach of 14000 would again push us down towards 12500).
NIFTY (4413)
4540 and 4620 are the targets as well as resistances for the week. In the event of reversing from any of these resistances we may enter into sideways mode with negative bias. Supports for the week are 4165 and 4080 respectively. Hold the longs until 4080 is breached.
The optimistic target this week would be 4775.
The trend for this week is certainly positive but a host of resistances present just above current levels may also cause markets to sweat and would require booster shots occasionally. Where will these booster shots come from…is yet to be seen!
We don’t see any positives at macroeconomic level domestically or around the world. But could the Institutional Investors start investing gradually in
Wishing you a happy trading week!
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Aug 2, 2008
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