Short Term Trend: Negative bias. Needs to close above 4325 to turn short term positive.
Medium Term Trend: Negative. Needs to close above 4725 to turn med term positive.
Long Term Trend: A long term correction is underway in finally a bull market.
S&P CNX NIFTY/BSE SENSEX
4320/14400 Resistance
4180/13800 Resistance. Inability to move above here would be a cue to short sell.
3985/13102 Previous Close
3775/12500 Support
3700/12350 support
CONCLUSION
The latest positive development in Indo-U.S. nuclear deal may also bring some cheer to the markets this week. But also keep a watch on resistance areas besides global trend - especially the Asian markets and FTSE.
(It will be a four days week; 2nd Oct being Gandhi Jayanti).
Sep 28, 2008
GLOBAL WATCH LIST: 29SEP TO 03OCT 2008
WORLD MARKETS
U.S. DOW (11143): Faces Resistance at 11400 and 11750. Reversal from/below any of these levels would keep the down targets of 10000 open with a short term support at10600 levels. Though very unlikely in the near term, it ought to give 2-3 closes above 12150 in order to reverse the current primary downtrend.
U.K. FTSE100 (5088): Faces formidable resistance zone between 5350 and 5420 in near term. Surpassing this zone, it could move up to 5500 and perhaps 5650 but... noticeable weakness prevails! Medium term supports are at 5050 and 4850. Failure of 4850 would be ominous for this market.
Though highly unlikely in near to short term, it ought to give sustainable closes above 5800 to weaken its current downtrend.
JAPAN NIKKEI (11893): Short term uptrend faces resistances at 12400 and 12750. Supports are at 11600 and 11300. Failure of supports would pull it down towards 10000 in medium term.
CHINA HANGSENG (18682): Faces major resistances at 19000 and 21000. Supports in the short term are at 18500 and 16200. Failure of second support, though less likely in the short term, would be ominous for this market.
CHINA SHANGHAI (2294): Immediate resistance is 2300 levels, then major one at 2440. Supports would be at 2115 and 2000. Failure of 2000 would drag it to 1800 levels again.
GOLD, OIL & CURRENCIES
Gold($878): remains in a range below $920. Since it is consolidating below this crucial breakout level and investors also looking for a safe haven, it is more likely to move above $920 in near term and resume its upward journey towards its long term target of $1200. Crucial supports would be 825 and 800. Only a close below 800 would turn things negative for it.
Crude Oil($107): made a false move towards 120 last week to move down below 110, finally.
It has four levels of 90-100-110-120. It could whipsaw 100-110 levels this week. Breakout from outer ranges would determine the future course. But fundamentally, it is more likely to remain subdued due to the slowing growth. Long term targets are $70 and below.
EUR/USD(1.4587): USD is in a short term downtrend but the U.S. bail out plan could cause buoyancy in it in the near term and may touch supports at 1.44 and 1.43 and even 1.39 perhaps, causing weakness in EUR. But in the long term USD is likely to weaken and head again towards 1.60 against Euro. Weakness would be confirmed when 1.5 ceiling is broken on the upside.
U.S. DOW (11143): Faces Resistance at 11400 and 11750. Reversal from/below any of these levels would keep the down targets of 10000 open with a short term support at10600 levels. Though very unlikely in the near term, it ought to give 2-3 closes above 12150 in order to reverse the current primary downtrend.
U.K. FTSE100 (5088): Faces formidable resistance zone between 5350 and 5420 in near term. Surpassing this zone, it could move up to 5500 and perhaps 5650 but... noticeable weakness prevails! Medium term supports are at 5050 and 4850. Failure of 4850 would be ominous for this market.
Though highly unlikely in near to short term, it ought to give sustainable closes above 5800 to weaken its current downtrend.
JAPAN NIKKEI (11893): Short term uptrend faces resistances at 12400 and 12750. Supports are at 11600 and 11300. Failure of supports would pull it down towards 10000 in medium term.
CHINA HANGSENG (18682): Faces major resistances at 19000 and 21000. Supports in the short term are at 18500 and 16200. Failure of second support, though less likely in the short term, would be ominous for this market.
CHINA SHANGHAI (2294): Immediate resistance is 2300 levels, then major one at 2440. Supports would be at 2115 and 2000. Failure of 2000 would drag it to 1800 levels again.
GOLD, OIL & CURRENCIES
Gold($878): remains in a range below $920. Since it is consolidating below this crucial breakout level and investors also looking for a safe haven, it is more likely to move above $920 in near term and resume its upward journey towards its long term target of $1200. Crucial supports would be 825 and 800. Only a close below 800 would turn things negative for it.
Crude Oil($107): made a false move towards 120 last week to move down below 110, finally.
It has four levels of 90-100-110-120. It could whipsaw 100-110 levels this week. Breakout from outer ranges would determine the future course. But fundamentally, it is more likely to remain subdued due to the slowing growth. Long term targets are $70 and below.
EUR/USD(1.4587): USD is in a short term downtrend but the U.S. bail out plan could cause buoyancy in it in the near term and may touch supports at 1.44 and 1.43 and even 1.39 perhaps, causing weakness in EUR. But in the long term USD is likely to weaken and head again towards 1.60 against Euro. Weakness would be confirmed when 1.5 ceiling is broken on the upside.
TRADING TIPS: 29SEP TO 03OCT 2008
RELIANCE(1963)
There is a hope until it holds 1900 levels. Existing longs may hold with a stop at 1890 for targets of 2040 and 2145. But the fresh longs may be initiated only on a close above 2150.
On the other hand, a close below the given stop loss would drag it to 1700 levels again. Medium term negativity is mitigated only on a move above 2400, which looks unlikely soon.
A long straddle(buying call and put of same strike) of strike 1950 is suggested. It costs around Rs.15000/- per set up.
SBIN(1435)
A stock, in howsoever strong uptrend, is bogged down by the prevailing pessimistic mood. Now, this week if it fails to move beyond 1500, it might also not hold the support at 1400. But as said earlier in previous weeks, it has a strong support above 1300 levels also.
A long straddle of strike 1440 is suggested. It costs around Rs.23000/- per set up.
INFOSYSTCH(1447)
It has more resistances than supports in the near to medium term. The rough idea is that it will have to move above 1675 to turn things positive for itself but...it seems very unlikely in view of the prevailing downward momentum in this stock. However, a failure to move above 1500 this week would drag it down towards 1300( medium to long term targets could be 1200 and 1100).
Short selling opportunity is possible according to the outlook above. Sell on rise with stop at 1521. Derivative traders can initiate a setup by selling futures and hedging that with a call option of 1500 or whichever nearby strike looks appropriate.
Nifty Futures' trading calls, if any, would be posted on updates from time to time.
The F&O calls given here are comparatively safe bets. But please note that only savvy traders need to trade in derivative calls because the trader herself has to track the set up, finally. It requires a lot of hard work to extract profits from F&O. A crude approach can cause considerable financial loss.
There is a hope until it holds 1900 levels. Existing longs may hold with a stop at 1890 for targets of 2040 and 2145. But the fresh longs may be initiated only on a close above 2150.
On the other hand, a close below the given stop loss would drag it to 1700 levels again. Medium term negativity is mitigated only on a move above 2400, which looks unlikely soon.
A long straddle(buying call and put of same strike) of strike 1950 is suggested. It costs around Rs.15000/- per set up.
SBIN(1435)
A stock, in howsoever strong uptrend, is bogged down by the prevailing pessimistic mood. Now, this week if it fails to move beyond 1500, it might also not hold the support at 1400. But as said earlier in previous weeks, it has a strong support above 1300 levels also.
A long straddle of strike 1440 is suggested. It costs around Rs.23000/- per set up.
INFOSYSTCH(1447)
It has more resistances than supports in the near to medium term. The rough idea is that it will have to move above 1675 to turn things positive for itself but...it seems very unlikely in view of the prevailing downward momentum in this stock. However, a failure to move above 1500 this week would drag it down towards 1300( medium to long term targets could be 1200 and 1100).
Short selling opportunity is possible according to the outlook above. Sell on rise with stop at 1521. Derivative traders can initiate a setup by selling futures and hedging that with a call option of 1500 or whichever nearby strike looks appropriate.
Nifty Futures' trading calls, if any, would be posted on updates from time to time.
The F&O calls given here are comparatively safe bets. But please note that only savvy traders need to trade in derivative calls because the trader herself has to track the set up, finally. It requires a lot of hard work to extract profits from F&O. A crude approach can cause considerable financial loss.
Sep 21, 2008
WEEKLY INDEX OUTLOOK: 22SEP TO 26SEP 2008
Short Term Trend: the recent upswing does not mitigate the woes of ongoing downtrend immediately.
Medium Term Trend: has turned negative.
Long Term Trend: a correction is underway in finally, a bull market.
NIFTY(SENSEX)
Resistance Band between 4300 to 4350(14300 to 14450):
It is an important resistance band which needs to be surpassed soon. A reversal from this band would pull the markets down to previous troughs at 3800(12550) again. However, a move above here would be a positive sign and may help overcome the important breakout level at 4560(15100) to turn things positive for near term. Outlook would be updated on a close above this band.
4245(14042) : Previous Close
4090(13535): Support
3980(13145): support
3800(12500):
It is the Lower target in the event of a failure of the Resistance band above. A close below this would project targets of 3640(12000) in near term; and also lower ones of 3000(10000) in medium term.
In view of the prevailing circumstances in the markets world over, there is no specific observation this week. Watch out as the picture unfolds day to day. Just keep a watch on updates every day.
Medium Term Trend: has turned negative.
Long Term Trend: a correction is underway in finally, a bull market.
NIFTY(SENSEX)
Resistance Band between 4300 to 4350(14300 to 14450):
It is an important resistance band which needs to be surpassed soon. A reversal from this band would pull the markets down to previous troughs at 3800(12550) again. However, a move above here would be a positive sign and may help overcome the important breakout level at 4560(15100) to turn things positive for near term. Outlook would be updated on a close above this band.
4245(14042) : Previous Close
4090(13535): Support
3980(13145): support
3800(12500):
It is the Lower target in the event of a failure of the Resistance band above. A close below this would project targets of 3640(12000) in near term; and also lower ones of 3000(10000) in medium term.
In view of the prevailing circumstances in the markets world over, there is no specific observation this week. Watch out as the picture unfolds day to day. Just keep a watch on updates every day.
GLOBAL WATCH LIST: 22SEP TO 26SEP 2008
Efforts to change the fundamental picture has not changed the medium term outlook for the markets. All the trends are still in downward mode and needs lot of efforts to surpass multiple resistances ahead. Alternately, the markets shall have to hold the supports, which is again very doubtful amid this atmosphere of selling due to fear. Everything is at the height of uncertainty in the markets. It is a short-term-traders' and scrapers' paradise but the long-term-investors' hell!
WORLD MARKETS
U.S. DOW(11388): Faces resistances at 11580, 11790 and 11870. Supports for the week are at 11070, 10940 and 10815. It needs to break the ceiling above at 12130 to reverse the prevailing downtrend. Otherwise, the tendency would remain to trend down towards 10000 levels.
U.K. FTSE100(5351): Resistances are at 5377, 5420 and 5650. Though very unlikely, it needs to break the ceiling above at 5800 to turn things positive for itself. Supports for the week would be 5106 and 5045. Failure of 5045 would drag it lower to 4800 levels again.
JAPAN NIKKEI(11920): making an attempt to move towards 12300. But more likely to move down towards 10000 levels in days ahead. Supports on way down would be at 11700, 11625 and 11550.
CHINA HANGSENG(19328): Faces resistances at 19525 and 20840. Reversal from any of these resistances would drag it lower towards the supports at 18000 and 17440. Failure of second support would drag it lower to 16000 levels.
CHINA SHANGHAI(2075): Faces resistance at 2220. Though unlikely, it needs to move above 2380 levels to turn things positive for the near term. Supports are at 1970, 1935 and 1906. Breach of 1900 would drag it lower to 1800 once again.
INDIA BSE SENSEX(14042): Faces resistances at 14300 and 14450. Supports are at 13500 and 12550.
CURRENCIES, GOLD & CRUDE
Near term is very unclear in the face of sudden changes taking place fundamentally.
EUR/USD may remain range bound between 1.39 and 1.50 in medium term. But there would be a lot of focus now on the movement of USD in weeks ahead.
GOLD is expected to remain in a range between $820 and $920. A firm breakout on either side is needed. However, buoyancy is expected as investors search for a safe haven.
CRUDE OIL is also expected to remain in the range of $90 to $110 this week.
In the changing scenario of financial landscape, it would be watchful period in terms of various economic data. The focus now would be on Inflation, unemployment and quarterly earnings in weeks ahead. Keep a watch!
WORLD MARKETS
U.S. DOW(11388): Faces resistances at 11580, 11790 and 11870. Supports for the week are at 11070, 10940 and 10815. It needs to break the ceiling above at 12130 to reverse the prevailing downtrend. Otherwise, the tendency would remain to trend down towards 10000 levels.
U.K. FTSE100(5351): Resistances are at 5377, 5420 and 5650. Though very unlikely, it needs to break the ceiling above at 5800 to turn things positive for itself. Supports for the week would be 5106 and 5045. Failure of 5045 would drag it lower to 4800 levels again.
JAPAN NIKKEI(11920): making an attempt to move towards 12300. But more likely to move down towards 10000 levels in days ahead. Supports on way down would be at 11700, 11625 and 11550.
CHINA HANGSENG(19328): Faces resistances at 19525 and 20840. Reversal from any of these resistances would drag it lower towards the supports at 18000 and 17440. Failure of second support would drag it lower to 16000 levels.
CHINA SHANGHAI(2075): Faces resistance at 2220. Though unlikely, it needs to move above 2380 levels to turn things positive for the near term. Supports are at 1970, 1935 and 1906. Breach of 1900 would drag it lower to 1800 once again.
INDIA BSE SENSEX(14042): Faces resistances at 14300 and 14450. Supports are at 13500 and 12550.
CURRENCIES, GOLD & CRUDE
Near term is very unclear in the face of sudden changes taking place fundamentally.
EUR/USD may remain range bound between 1.39 and 1.50 in medium term. But there would be a lot of focus now on the movement of USD in weeks ahead.
GOLD is expected to remain in a range between $820 and $920. A firm breakout on either side is needed. However, buoyancy is expected as investors search for a safe haven.
CRUDE OIL is also expected to remain in the range of $90 to $110 this week.
In the changing scenario of financial landscape, it would be watchful period in terms of various economic data. The focus now would be on Inflation, unemployment and quarterly earnings in weeks ahead. Keep a watch!
TRADING TIPS: 22SEP TO 26SEP 2008
RELIANCE (2055)
Faces resistances at 2070 and 2144. A reversal from any of these levels can pull it down again towards 1765. Short sell on reversal from any of these levels for the targets of 1900 and lower.
Buy only on a close above 2150 for short term target of 2250 and perhaps 2375 also.
SBIN (1566)
It is still in an upbeat mood. On surpassing the near hurdle at 1639 it could achieve targets of 1700 and 1760/1770.
It is still a buy on decline up to 1435 levels with short term trading stop loss at 1400 and short term investing stop at 1300.
INFOSYSTCH (1625)
Faces resistance band between 1650 and 1700. A failure to surpass this band this week would be a cue to short sell it for targets of 1500.
The volatility in US dollar has upset its billing structure and its quarterly results are awaited anxiously early next month. However, it still remains the pride of Indian IT sector among others as well.
NIFTY FUTURES
Please trade according to the levels given in Weekly Index Outlook and/or as per the calls posted on UPDATES from time to time, if any!
Please Note:- The details given above are mainly to acquaint you with near to medium term trend in the stocks. But as the picture unfolds every day, fresh calls, if any, are posted on the updates.
Therefore, you are requested to keep a check on updates every day. Moreover, one should also trade in tandem with the prevalent market sentiment.
Wishing You a Happy Trading Week!
Faces resistances at 2070 and 2144. A reversal from any of these levels can pull it down again towards 1765. Short sell on reversal from any of these levels for the targets of 1900 and lower.
Buy only on a close above 2150 for short term target of 2250 and perhaps 2375 also.
SBIN (1566)
It is still in an upbeat mood. On surpassing the near hurdle at 1639 it could achieve targets of 1700 and 1760/1770.
It is still a buy on decline up to 1435 levels with short term trading stop loss at 1400 and short term investing stop at 1300.
INFOSYSTCH (1625)
Faces resistance band between 1650 and 1700. A failure to surpass this band this week would be a cue to short sell it for targets of 1500.
The volatility in US dollar has upset its billing structure and its quarterly results are awaited anxiously early next month. However, it still remains the pride of Indian IT sector among others as well.
NIFTY FUTURES
Please trade according to the levels given in Weekly Index Outlook and/or as per the calls posted on UPDATES from time to time, if any!
Please Note:- The details given above are mainly to acquaint you with near to medium term trend in the stocks. But as the picture unfolds every day, fresh calls, if any, are posted on the updates.
Therefore, you are requested to keep a check on updates every day. Moreover, one should also trade in tandem with the prevalent market sentiment.
Wishing You a Happy Trading Week!
Sep 14, 2008
WEEKLY INDEX OUTLOK: 15SEP TO 19SEP 2008
Short Term Trend: Sideways with negative bias.
Medium Term Trend: Sideways with positive bias.
Long Term Trend: A correction is underway in finally, a bull market.
NIFTY
4560 Resistance. Now it requires a lot of positive sentiment to surpass the level this week.
4420 Resistance. Reversal from this area would be a signal for moving down to previous lows.
4380 Resistance. Inability to move past here would pull the index downwards in near term.
(4228 CMP or previous close):Reversal up from this zone would keep the higher targets of 4700 and 5000 in play for near to medium term.
4200 Support. A breach below here could cause frustration among the bulls in short term.
4115 Support. The index could make a foray little below 4100 also. But as long as 4100 is held on closing basis, the hopes of trending upwards soon would remain high.
CONCLUSION
Uncertainty is the buzz word for the week. It would require a lot of 'booster' shots now to propel the markets beyond upper resistance. Negative divergence in Asian Markets and conversely some positive divergence in Western Markets is a dilemma. It is a tug of war but more in favour of Asian weakness, perhaps!
Medium Term Trend: Sideways with positive bias.
Long Term Trend: A correction is underway in finally, a bull market.
NIFTY
4560 Resistance. Now it requires a lot of positive sentiment to surpass the level this week.
4420 Resistance. Reversal from this area would be a signal for moving down to previous lows.
4380 Resistance. Inability to move past here would pull the index downwards in near term.
(4228 CMP or previous close):Reversal up from this zone would keep the higher targets of 4700 and 5000 in play for near to medium term.
4200 Support. A breach below here could cause frustration among the bulls in short term.
4115 Support. The index could make a foray little below 4100 also. But as long as 4100 is held on closing basis, the hopes of trending upwards soon would remain high.
CONCLUSION
Uncertainty is the buzz word for the week. It would require a lot of 'booster' shots now to propel the markets beyond upper resistance. Negative divergence in Asian Markets and conversely some positive divergence in Western Markets is a dilemma. It is a tug of war but more in favour of Asian weakness, perhaps!
GLOBAL WATCH LIST: 15SEP TO 19SEP 2008
WORLD MARKETS
U.S. DOW(11422): seems to have built support at 11000 for near term. Faces resistance at 11550 and 11700 levels. Short Term is sideways with negative bias. Medium Term is unclear until it moves out of 11000 and 11800 range. Long Term is still bearish.
(Only a failure of 11000 on downside would drag it lower in medium term).
U.K. FTSE 100(5417): did not breach support at 5100 levels. Now seems to be headed up towards 5600 levels in near term. But it is a cautious optimism because a reversal from current levels can drag it lower towards 5100 again. Long term is still bearish.
JAPAN NIKKEI(12215): Just hanging above its crucial support of 12000 which is more likely to be breached. A fall below 11700 would push it down towards 10000 in weeks ahead. Weakness persists!
CHINA HANGSENG(19353): Has a support at 19000 levels. Breach of this support will pull it down to 16000 levels in days ahead. Selling pressure continues.
CHINA SHANGHAI(2080): continues to move down towards 2000 levels in the near term. It is the most battered among the lot; it peaked at 6100 just last October; a whopping 4000 points cut.
CURRENCY
US dollar(USD) gained strength as it breached 1.43 level against Euro(EUR) and touched the levels of 1.39. It is currently at 1.42 and is likely to remain buoyant in the medium term. Faces resistance on the upside at 1.44 and 1.50. It could head down towards 1.30 or lower against EUR in medium to long term, causing more weakness in Euro and other currencies. This strength in USD causes weakness in Gold and Crude oil.
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil price is buoyant due to hurricane Ike. Later, it is likely to breach $100 firmly and enter into a primary down trend. But, as said earlier, it may just cause a momentary jubiliation in the markets because this primary down trend would be a confirmation of slowing economies.
(Emerging economy like India benefits from this fall in crude price in the long run eventually).
INFLATION
Still a major cause of concern for all the economies, particularly the U.S. and the U.K.
Indian inflation figures are signaling some cooling down but... keep a watch!
GOLD
Breached the crucial medium term support at $ 770. Now the next target and firm support is at $ 700. Yet, a breach of this support would take it to $650 in weeks ahead.
All non-agricultural commodities are under pressure. But this could be of help only in the jugglery of inflation figures.
ECONOMY
Inability to find solutions soon to Lehman Bros' (a financial institution of repute) woes is a pointer towards the uncertainty of overall financial health.
Anyway, amid this rising inflation, the U.S. FED interest rate decision scheduled for Tuesday would be an important date!
Indian IIP(industrial production) numbers declared last Friday were more than satisfactory but the markets ignored that all as selling pressure continued. This is an indication of prevalent fear and uncertainty about growth in the economies all over.
TRADING TIPS: 15SEP TO 19SEP 2008
RELIANCE(1933)
Signs of weakness are emerging in this stock and is also poised above the crucial level of 1900. A close below 1920/1900 would imply more pain in the offing and it could move down to 1700 levels in near term.
However, on sustaining above current levels or above 1900 would keep it buoyant with resistances at 2100, 2150 and 2200 in the near term. Trade accordingly.
SBIN(1514)
It is still the sturdiest among the lot from trading and short-term investing point of view. Short term traders could buy it on declines at support levels around 1450, 1420 and 1400 with stop loss placed at 1390. Short term Investors' stop is 1300. Targets would be 1650 and 1850 in near to medium term.
INFOSYSTCH(1644)
It made a big, long red candle on the charts last week turning things iffy for this stock. Now it has a laborious task of moving past the levels at 1800 to turn things positive for itself. On the way up, it has resistances at 1700 and 1740. Go short if fails to move above 1700 this week.
Supports would be at 1600 and 1580 levels in the short term. Breach of the second support would be an indication of impending weakness in the offing.
NIFTY FUTURES
Please trade according to the levels given in Weekly Index Outlook and/or as per the calls posted on UPDATES from time to time, if any!
Please Note:- The details given above are mainly to acquaint you with near to medium term trend in the stocks. But as the picture unfolds every day, fresh calls, if any, are posted on the updates.
Therefore, you are requested to keep a check on updates every day. Moreover, one should also trade in tandem with the prevalent market sentiment.
Wishing You a Happy Trading Week!
Signs of weakness are emerging in this stock and is also poised above the crucial level of 1900. A close below 1920/1900 would imply more pain in the offing and it could move down to 1700 levels in near term.
However, on sustaining above current levels or above 1900 would keep it buoyant with resistances at 2100, 2150 and 2200 in the near term. Trade accordingly.
SBIN(1514)
It is still the sturdiest among the lot from trading and short-term investing point of view. Short term traders could buy it on declines at support levels around 1450, 1420 and 1400 with stop loss placed at 1390. Short term Investors' stop is 1300. Targets would be 1650 and 1850 in near to medium term.
INFOSYSTCH(1644)
It made a big, long red candle on the charts last week turning things iffy for this stock. Now it has a laborious task of moving past the levels at 1800 to turn things positive for itself. On the way up, it has resistances at 1700 and 1740. Go short if fails to move above 1700 this week.
Supports would be at 1600 and 1580 levels in the short term. Breach of the second support would be an indication of impending weakness in the offing.
NIFTY FUTURES
Please trade according to the levels given in Weekly Index Outlook and/or as per the calls posted on UPDATES from time to time, if any!
Please Note:- The details given above are mainly to acquaint you with near to medium term trend in the stocks. But as the picture unfolds every day, fresh calls, if any, are posted on the updates.
Therefore, you are requested to keep a check on updates every day. Moreover, one should also trade in tandem with the prevalent market sentiment.
Wishing You a Happy Trading Week!
Sep 7, 2008
"WEEKLY INDEX OUTLOOK": 08SEP TO 12SEP 2008
Short Term Trend: a breakout from either side of the prevailing narrow range is expected amid a likelihood of high volatility this week.
Medium Term Trend: sideways with positive bias. Global trend may prevail upon all, lastly.
Long Term Trend: a long term correction is underway in finally, a bull market.
NIFTY
4650: Resistance/breakout level and a probable target 'if' the trend turns adequately positive.
4565: Resistance zone and target.
4525: Probable Target.
(4352 CMP)
4265: This support may hold if the slide down is gradual. But may not hold a sharp fall. It is also a probable reversal area for markets.
4200: This support may hold amid sharp fall. A probable reversal area also. Short term traders may remain cautious about the market sentiment at this level.
4100: Medium term remains positive until this support holds. Stop Loss for LONGS.
BSE SENSEX
15550: Resistance/breakout level and a probable target 'if' the trend turns adequately positive.
15230: Resistance zone.
15120: Probable target.
(14483 CMP)
14200: This support may hold amid a gradual fall. But a sharp fall may breach it. It is also a reversal zone for the markets.
14000: A crucial support and a reversal area as well. Signs of weakness emerge below this level.
13700: This support may hold amid a sharp fall. Stop Loss for LONGS.
CONCLUSION
After a breakthrough at Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) meeting our markets may rise upwards in early part of the week.
Amid this world markets' weakness our markets did not show any signs of panic last week. But keeping in mind the impending weakness all around us, we may not keep a pace different from others very much.
There could be bouts of high volatility in near term. It is yet to be seen as to which way we breakout because there are signals of more weakness from Asian markets besides the US and European markets.
So, as they say, it is a moment of cautious optimism! Yet,the favoured view would be that this nuclear deal euphoria may help the supports to hold this weak, if not the breakout above 4650/15550.
Medium Term Trend: sideways with positive bias. Global trend may prevail upon all, lastly.
Long Term Trend: a long term correction is underway in finally, a bull market.
NIFTY
4650: Resistance/breakout level and a probable target 'if' the trend turns adequately positive.
4565: Resistance zone and target.
4525: Probable Target.
(4352 CMP)
4265: This support may hold if the slide down is gradual. But may not hold a sharp fall. It is also a probable reversal area for markets.
4200: This support may hold amid sharp fall. A probable reversal area also. Short term traders may remain cautious about the market sentiment at this level.
4100: Medium term remains positive until this support holds. Stop Loss for LONGS.
BSE SENSEX
15550: Resistance/breakout level and a probable target 'if' the trend turns adequately positive.
15230: Resistance zone.
15120: Probable target.
(14483 CMP)
14200: This support may hold amid a gradual fall. But a sharp fall may breach it. It is also a reversal zone for the markets.
14000: A crucial support and a reversal area as well. Signs of weakness emerge below this level.
13700: This support may hold amid a sharp fall. Stop Loss for LONGS.
CONCLUSION
After a breakthrough at Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) meeting our markets may rise upwards in early part of the week.
Amid this world markets' weakness our markets did not show any signs of panic last week. But keeping in mind the impending weakness all around us, we may not keep a pace different from others very much.
There could be bouts of high volatility in near term. It is yet to be seen as to which way we breakout because there are signals of more weakness from Asian markets besides the US and European markets.
So, as they say, it is a moment of cautious optimism! Yet,the favoured view would be that this nuclear deal euphoria may help the supports to hold this weak, if not the breakout above 4650/15550.
"GLOBAL WATCH LIST": 08SEP TO 12SEP 2008
WORLD MARKETS
All the major stock markets seem to have turned weak except India in the short term at least.
U.S. DOW(11221): faces stiff resistance in 11400 zone. It could breach the support in 10800 zone and slide down towards 10000 in days ahead.
U.K. FTSE(5241): contrary to the outlook last week, FTSE100 breached its crucial support at 5300. Now it is headed towards support 5100. If this support is also breached then next support zone is 4800.
JAPAN NIKKEI(12212): has turned weaker and is unlikely to hold support at 12000. Then it is headed down towards 10000 levels.
CHINA HONGKONG, HANGSENG(19933): has also turned weak and could be headed towards 16000 if support at 18700 is not respected.
CHINA SHANGHAI(2202): was already very weak and has also broken its lower support at 2300 levels. Now it could be headed towards 2000 in days ahead.
INDIA BSE SENSEX(14483): stands apart among the lot here in terms of strength in the short term. But still in a range between 13700 and 15500. Breakout on either side would determine the trend.
CRUDE OIL
It is hovering below its crucial level of $110. Though very unlikely, a rise above $120 only would surely be a cause of concern. In the short term, OPEC meeting on Tuesday would set the tone for it. But in view of the slowing growth signals all around, it is likely to breach $100 level in days or weeks ahead, confirming a downtrend in the long term.
It may be noted here that the fall below $100 may not help stock markets much in the long term because it would happen due to fall in demand eventually, confirming the recession!
CURRENCIES
US dollar(USD) has taken the centre stage from Crude Oil. It has breached 1.43 level against EURO which is a confirmation of impending strength in USD in medium term.
GOLD
Gold prices are also weakening due to the rise in USD. It may remain sideways with $770 as medium term support. In not very long term, it is likely to move down towards $700 due to suspected deflation in some major economies.
ECONOMIC DATA
There are more signs of economic slowdown emerging from the US, as well as U.K recently. The continuous rise in unemployment in the US has turned all eyes towards its overall economic data.
On financial side, there are some plans to bail out their housing-loan banks but that may not mitigate the problems of rising unemployment and inflation. Pressure is on containing inflation by raising interest rates, and that could put a squeeze on liquidity which offsets slowdown in economic activities and rise in unemployment again.
The big event this month would be the FED interest rate decision on the 16th.
For educational purposes, the US Economic Calendar has been added at the bottom of this page. But it is not necessary for a lay trader to focus much on every detail.
( In the calendar, read 'Vol' as volatility caused and 'Cons' as consensus/expectation).
INDIA SPECIFIC
With signs of inflation cooling and the recent breakthrough at the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) meeting may infuse more confidence among the Foreign Institutional Investors (FII's) in India and more investment for long term may come in the due course of time. But the medium term trend could be dictated by the global markets situation only.
However, our markets may react very positively in the early part of next week. Yet, overall it is a moment of cautious optimism in the near term!
All the major stock markets seem to have turned weak except India in the short term at least.
U.S. DOW(11221): faces stiff resistance in 11400 zone. It could breach the support in 10800 zone and slide down towards 10000 in days ahead.
U.K. FTSE(5241): contrary to the outlook last week, FTSE100 breached its crucial support at 5300. Now it is headed towards support 5100. If this support is also breached then next support zone is 4800.
JAPAN NIKKEI(12212): has turned weaker and is unlikely to hold support at 12000. Then it is headed down towards 10000 levels.
CHINA HONGKONG, HANGSENG(19933): has also turned weak and could be headed towards 16000 if support at 18700 is not respected.
CHINA SHANGHAI(2202): was already very weak and has also broken its lower support at 2300 levels. Now it could be headed towards 2000 in days ahead.
INDIA BSE SENSEX(14483): stands apart among the lot here in terms of strength in the short term. But still in a range between 13700 and 15500. Breakout on either side would determine the trend.
CRUDE OIL
It is hovering below its crucial level of $110. Though very unlikely, a rise above $120 only would surely be a cause of concern. In the short term, OPEC meeting on Tuesday would set the tone for it. But in view of the slowing growth signals all around, it is likely to breach $100 level in days or weeks ahead, confirming a downtrend in the long term.
It may be noted here that the fall below $100 may not help stock markets much in the long term because it would happen due to fall in demand eventually, confirming the recession!
CURRENCIES
US dollar(USD) has taken the centre stage from Crude Oil. It has breached 1.43 level against EURO which is a confirmation of impending strength in USD in medium term.
GOLD
Gold prices are also weakening due to the rise in USD. It may remain sideways with $770 as medium term support. In not very long term, it is likely to move down towards $700 due to suspected deflation in some major economies.
ECONOMIC DATA
There are more signs of economic slowdown emerging from the US, as well as U.K recently. The continuous rise in unemployment in the US has turned all eyes towards its overall economic data.
On financial side, there are some plans to bail out their housing-loan banks but that may not mitigate the problems of rising unemployment and inflation. Pressure is on containing inflation by raising interest rates, and that could put a squeeze on liquidity which offsets slowdown in economic activities and rise in unemployment again.
The big event this month would be the FED interest rate decision on the 16th.
For educational purposes, the US Economic Calendar has been added at the bottom of this page. But it is not necessary for a lay trader to focus much on every detail.
( In the calendar, read 'Vol' as volatility caused and 'Cons' as consensus/expectation).
INDIA SPECIFIC
With signs of inflation cooling and the recent breakthrough at the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) meeting may infuse more confidence among the Foreign Institutional Investors (FII's) in India and more investment for long term may come in the due course of time. But the medium term trend could be dictated by the global markets situation only.
However, our markets may react very positively in the early part of next week. Yet, overall it is a moment of cautious optimism in the near term!
"TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS": 08SEP TO 12SEP 2008
RELIANCE(2081)
It reversed from 2281 peak last week but is still holding above its crucial support at 2050. Inability to move above the zone between 2150-2175 in near term would keep it under pressure to move lower towards 1900 levels. But, at the same time a reversal from 2000-2050 zone would keep it buoyant with a targets of 2250 or higher.
No fresh long calls at the moment. Just hold the existing longs as long as it remains above 2050. Otherwise, go short on a close below 2050.
SBI(1520)
This stock could be considered for "short term investing" if does not close below 1430 this week. Then the targets would be 1700 to 1900 in weeks ahead. Investors can buy on declines with stop loss at 1300.
Short term traders can consider going long on reversal from 1430-1400 levels with a stop loss of 1400.
INFOSYSTCH(1712)
Peaked at 1805 last week and moved down in sympathy with the markets. But it still has a fair chance of remaining positive in near term to medium term. Investors keep holding the stock with stop loss at 1600.
Traders may look for an opportunity on a fall around 1675 levels with stop loss at 1600. Medium term targets are 1800 to 1875.
NIFTY FUTURES
In combination of expected optimism due to NSG clearance with very weak signals from world markets, it is yet to be seen as to how markets pan out next week.
Therefore, calls if any, would be posted on updates (updated once everyday in normal circumstances).
Please Note:- The details given above are mainly to acquaint you with near to medium term trend in the stocks. But as the picture unfolds every day, fresh calls, if any, are posted on the updates.
Therefore, you are requested to keep a check on updates every day. Moreover, one should also trade in tandem with the prevalent market sentiment.
Wishing You a Happy Trading Week!
It reversed from 2281 peak last week but is still holding above its crucial support at 2050. Inability to move above the zone between 2150-2175 in near term would keep it under pressure to move lower towards 1900 levels. But, at the same time a reversal from 2000-2050 zone would keep it buoyant with a targets of 2250 or higher.
No fresh long calls at the moment. Just hold the existing longs as long as it remains above 2050. Otherwise, go short on a close below 2050.
SBI(1520)
This stock could be considered for "short term investing" if does not close below 1430 this week. Then the targets would be 1700 to 1900 in weeks ahead. Investors can buy on declines with stop loss at 1300.
Short term traders can consider going long on reversal from 1430-1400 levels with a stop loss of 1400.
INFOSYSTCH(1712)
Peaked at 1805 last week and moved down in sympathy with the markets. But it still has a fair chance of remaining positive in near term to medium term. Investors keep holding the stock with stop loss at 1600.
Traders may look for an opportunity on a fall around 1675 levels with stop loss at 1600. Medium term targets are 1800 to 1875.
NIFTY FUTURES
In combination of expected optimism due to NSG clearance with very weak signals from world markets, it is yet to be seen as to how markets pan out next week.
Therefore, calls if any, would be posted on updates (updated once everyday in normal circumstances).
Please Note:- The details given above are mainly to acquaint you with near to medium term trend in the stocks. But as the picture unfolds every day, fresh calls, if any, are posted on the updates.
Therefore, you are requested to keep a check on updates every day. Moreover, one should also trade in tandem with the prevalent market sentiment.
Wishing You a Happy Trading Week!
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