A break is much needed and desired after four months of mind whirring calculations! Yet, for the sake of the readers of this blog, the outlook would be published on daily basis from time to time on updates for a couple of weeks.
Therefore, please keep a check on UPDATES from time to time.
Thank you!
Nov 8, 2008
Nov 2, 2008
NIFTY/SENSEX OUTLOOK: 03NOV TO 07NOV 2008
NIFTY/SENSEX did make a robust up move last week but things are still uncertain.
Current levels are 2886(9788). Technically, if there is a weekly close above 3255(10750) then it would be a positive signal for medium term. But it seems unlikely until there is sustainable close above 3115(10280). A reversal from/below 10280 area (is quite likely) can pull these markets down once again. The favored view is that markets could open with a gap up on Monday but the negative cues, if any, from Asian or European markets could kill the enthusiasm by the closing hour. Immediate support is at 9040.
The real play of technicals is on the down side. If markets give another close below 2595(8800) levels then brace for another bout of down fall towards new lows in the area of 1700(6000) levels in medium term. On the other hand, a halt above 2650(9000) levels would be an indication of forming a sustainable trough in this area for medium term and even longer term, perhaps!
A sideways market in the near term may not be a signal of forming a trough but preparation of another downfall if 10750 on the upside is not overcome. And also that things would not improve very much until 12500 is crossed over. In all circumstances, we are in a bear market and eying the levels of 15000 in the next 2-3 months would be too much optimistic.
Current levels are 2886(9788). Technically, if there is a weekly close above 3255(10750) then it would be a positive signal for medium term. But it seems unlikely until there is sustainable close above 3115(10280). A reversal from/below 10280 area (is quite likely) can pull these markets down once again. The favored view is that markets could open with a gap up on Monday but the negative cues, if any, from Asian or European markets could kill the enthusiasm by the closing hour. Immediate support is at 9040.
The real play of technicals is on the down side. If markets give another close below 2595(8800) levels then brace for another bout of down fall towards new lows in the area of 1700(6000) levels in medium term. On the other hand, a halt above 2650(9000) levels would be an indication of forming a sustainable trough in this area for medium term and even longer term, perhaps!
A sideways market in the near term may not be a signal of forming a trough but preparation of another downfall if 10750 on the upside is not overcome. And also that things would not improve very much until 12500 is crossed over. In all circumstances, we are in a bear market and eying the levels of 15000 in the next 2-3 months would be too much optimistic.
GLOBAL WATCH 03NOV TO 07NOV 2008
Here is a broader outlook for the world markets this week. Please watch out for the words like near, short, medium term etc.
Also please keep checking every day with updates, if any.
JAPAN(N225) and HONGKONG(HANGSENG) moved up to their upper limits and now have started moving down again. Near term is neutral but in the short term, it is likely that they might hold their recent lows if keep declining further from current levels. But the Long term is still down.
U.S.(DOW) and U.K.(FTSE100) are just hanging on to their upper limits as per our outlook last week. But they need to give another weekly close above these levels to turn things positive for the medium term. Near term is neutral and in the short term these indexes might hold above their recent lows if start declining from the current levels. Whatever the outcome of presidential elections, the Long term still remains down.
INDIA(SENSEX) and CHINA(SHANGHAI) have different ball game now. Their long term growth story is still intact but technically, short to medium term is still negative unless they also give a robust upside close this week, which looks unlikely, at least for CHINA.
Fundamentally, China's over dependence on exports is a matter of concern for this economy until the western economies improve.
In spite of liquidity injection by Reserve Bank, India could remain affected by the credit crunch besides its domestic elections season over the next 6 months. The economic reforms would have to wait until then. There could be resumption of bull trend after that if the U.S. (S&P 500) does not give a close below 770 by then because that would be a clear signal of an impending mother of all bear runs for the world markets.
Also please keep checking every day with updates, if any.
JAPAN(N225) and HONGKONG(HANGSENG) moved up to their upper limits and now have started moving down again. Near term is neutral but in the short term, it is likely that they might hold their recent lows if keep declining further from current levels. But the Long term is still down.
U.S.(DOW) and U.K.(FTSE100) are just hanging on to their upper limits as per our outlook last week. But they need to give another weekly close above these levels to turn things positive for the medium term. Near term is neutral and in the short term these indexes might hold above their recent lows if start declining from the current levels. Whatever the outcome of presidential elections, the Long term still remains down.
INDIA(SENSEX) and CHINA(SHANGHAI) have different ball game now. Their long term growth story is still intact but technically, short to medium term is still negative unless they also give a robust upside close this week, which looks unlikely, at least for CHINA.
Fundamentally, China's over dependence on exports is a matter of concern for this economy until the western economies improve.
In spite of liquidity injection by Reserve Bank, India could remain affected by the credit crunch besides its domestic elections season over the next 6 months. The economic reforms would have to wait until then. There could be resumption of bull trend after that if the U.S. (S&P 500) does not give a close below 770 by then because that would be a clear signal of an impending mother of all bear runs for the world markets.
TRADING TIPS 03NOV TO 07NOV 2008
There are too many ifs and buts to say something about the stocks we discuss here every week. A number of resistances are on the way up but supports are lesser on the way down. Even remaining in a sideways mode in a small trading range would be of great relief.
Therefore, it would be prudent to wait this week and watch how things pan out over the next few days. There would be trading calls on updates, if any, from time to time!
The existing short term Long Positions may be squared off on every rise. Short positions could hold with an appropriate stop loss because things have not turned very positive, so to say! Markets could remain very volatile with negative bias over a couple of weeks more.
To sum it up, it is presumed that markets may trend lower soon unless there is one more weekly close with good gains.
Therefore, it would be prudent to wait this week and watch how things pan out over the next few days. There would be trading calls on updates, if any, from time to time!
The existing short term Long Positions may be squared off on every rise. Short positions could hold with an appropriate stop loss because things have not turned very positive, so to say! Markets could remain very volatile with negative bias over a couple of weeks more.
To sum it up, it is presumed that markets may trend lower soon unless there is one more weekly close with good gains.
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