WATCHLIST; 01SEP TO 05SEP 2008

There is no use running after every news and look for a "kill" unless you are an insider.Tracking just this bare minimum, weekly updated watch list below should suffice to determine the future market trend. However, you can add news or info that are specific to the scrips you normally trade in. But keep it minimum possible.


WORLD MARKETS

U.S. DJIA (11544): Still consolidating in a range of 11200-11700. Immediate supports are at 11475 and then 11350. My favored view is that it could spend another week in sideways consolidation. Only a breach below 11000 levels would take to 10000 levels in weeks ahead -which seems unlikely soon. Upside is capped around 12000 levels in the short term.

U.K. FTSE 100(5637): Faces immediate resistance around 5730-5745. But the favoured view is that it could surge ahead to reach 6000 in days ahead. Supports are at 5550 and then 5475. Failure of supports can drag it down towards 5100 again.

JAPAN NIKKEI (13073): Faces resistance at 13120 and then 13230. Failure to move above here would drag it to 12600 and then 12000 levels.

CHINA HANGSENG (21262): Contrary to our view last week, it moved up across 21000 levels and is showing resilience. Surpassing of resistance at 21900 level would project higher targets of 25000 in days ahead. But a fall below 20800 would pull it down again.

CHINA SHANGHAI(2397): Had been able to maintain above 2300 last week. Needs to breakout of the range of 2300 and 2500 to determine a trend. It is the most battered among all the world markets but showing no signs of reversal either.

INDIA BSE SENSEX( 14565): Needs to breakout of the range of 13700 and 15000 to determine a trend.


CRUDE OIL
Though very unlikely, a move beyond $122-125 zone would again take it towards $150. But my favoured view is a reversal from this 122-125 zone to move down again to 110 levels after hurricane Gustav. Yet, a rising oil price graph could dampen the mood in markets next week.

INDIA INFLATION
The figures edged down a bit to 12.40 from 12.63 (tolerance level is below 6). Another down tick this week could bring a lot of optimism in the markets on Friday next. Any hope of inflation cooling down...is yet to be seen! Still the consensus is on uptick in interest rates in near future.

CURRENCY
US$ is unlikely to budge in near term; yet, remain range bound with positive bias. Oil will still play the main role in near term.

US DATA
Watching this on regular basis could be mind boggling unless you are a currency trader. But occassional peek at it is always useful. So, why not this week!
US markets are closed on Monday. They have Jobless data on Thursday. Hourly earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment data on Friday.
Also the UK-BoE and EU-ECB have interest decisions this Thursday. They also have inflation rising there. Lets see what these central banks have to say this time. Credit squeeze??