WEEKLY OUTLOOK 28 JULY TO 01 AUGUST

(Click on chart to enlarge)

Please note that the outlook and levels given below are to be used on closing basis and best suited for swing trading and short term investing. Very short term traders can also use this to draw their own strategy. We suggest some home work with pen and paper and stick to that strategy. Use your own discretion to trade. We hope that our previous outlook was helpful as markets also behaved accordingly.

BSE SENSEX(14275)

is poised at a crucial juncture. Although, the indicators are pointing towards an up trend in near term yet, a breach down of 14000 would negate this view. This would be confirmed if 13500 is also not held. But the consensus is on a positive outlook for the week initially. This would have targets of 15130 and then 15800, the optimistic one. A close above 15800 would open doors for 18000 levels but…this is only a technical view point and seems wishful at this stage. Let’s see!

NIFTY(4312)

It is also in positive mood for the moment. As given in the charts, targets of 4560 and 4760 are achievable if the support 4256 is respected. Otherwise, a breach of 4085 also would confirm a downtrend in the direction of 3800. A reversal from anywhere below 4800 would be a cue for sideways trend in near term.

DJIA

Our markets would be taking cue from the world markets’ trend. Dow Jones is predicted to be headed lower towards 11000. One of the analysts I trust, envisions that the support 11150 is to be held in order to keep it in buoyant mood. Otherwise it would remain iffy and sideways between 10700 and 12000 for few more weeks.

EVENTS

Besides earnings season, the most important events are the Interest rate decisions by the RBI on the 29th and FED meet on the 31st July .The inflation figures and Fed rate decision would have an impact here on Friday. These events could give a decisive direction for the medium term. Watch out!

There are no signs of fireworks on Crude Oil charts. And if, the inflation figure stabilizes or cools down even a bit, it would induce substantial positive charge on markets.

CONCLUSION

Comparing Nifty and Sensex charts, the range is apparent for near term. Therefore, for a few more weeks, it could remain in a range between 15800 (Nifty 4800) on upper side and 12500 (Nifty 3800) on lower side. Breakout from this range would determine the medium term trend, obviously! But overall, the mood is positive for the week though, the RBI and FOMC decisions this Thursday would have an impact as well!

Wishing you a happy trading week!