CHART PATTERNS- FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY!

(Please click on the chart to enlarge)
Chart courtesy Quote.com

Given above is the monthly chart (End of Feb 2009) of INDIA BSE SENSEX.
The symmetrical triangle formation (encircled) is at the lower end of the wave starting from the all time high. This lower end situation implies that an upside breakout from the upper boundary of the triangle was not likely. So, the trendline has been breached on the downside.

This observation should hold good and the likely long term target for this index lies somewhere near 6000 levels. This target was projected on this blog a few months ago also when 12500 support was breached. That time it was arrived at by Fibonacci calculations.

Whatsoever, it may not be presumed that the markets are going to achieve these targets in a few days time in normal circumstance. It should also be borne in mind that the given chart is a monthly chart and it has longer term implications in comparison with weekly and daily charts. So, it could take many weeks with many bounces and short rallies from the supports below. The index could even chart another wave up towards 10000 before falling down again if our wave counts are not correct. But the market does not seem to have found a bottom yet!

However, it could be assumed that the markets might consolidate within 6000 and 11000 range over the next couple of quarters.

Since the wave counts within the triangle above were not easy to identify, it was difficult to pan out the likely trend ahead. In a perfect formation, there need to be at least five waves within the triangle before breaking out on either side. Which wave it could be charting at last is a moot question! But as per the counts of this blog, the breach of the triangle seem to have occurred on the downside.

WEEKLY OUTLOOK: 23FEB TO 27FEB 2009

FUNDAMENTALLY
We have been into this mayhem for over an year now and there still is nothing very encouraging to say fundamentally about the markets in the near term. In the absence of confidence, the valuations do not seem to be of any significance to the market players. Gold is being seen as the only investment option as the markets drift lower without any hope of quick recovery. The fear is that this prolonged consolidation at lower levels could force the big players also to encash some of their holdings in search of other avenues of investments or mere requirement of cash. One thing looks for sure that the economic data is not going to be improving for quite some time in the first half of 2009.

Therefore, in short-term to medium-term the economic data would be the main driver of the markets and the investors should still focus on the data such as unemployment, housing and consumer spending etc -specifically that of the U.S.
(The U.S. economic calendar is added to this page at the bottom).

Apart from the economic data, the market players would be anxiously watching out for the quarterly earnings over the next couple of quarters which are surely going to give a decisive direction to the markets. Until then, the markets could remain within a narrow range with occasional triggers from the economic data. Small to medium scale Long term Investment in select counters at current as well as at the lower levels is not ruled out but any rally beyond the current range is not in sight in near to short term. Markets could consolidate more at the lower end of the current range.

The following links also make the reading for this weekend:

1. Behind Dow's plunge to six year low: one big unknown .

2. Shares of the millionaire Warren Buffet have fallen to the lowest in over five years.



GOLD
Gold breached its $1000 mark and retraced a little. Momentum Indicators(MIs) on the daily charts have just entered into the overbought zone but on the weekly charts they are still below the overbought area. This implies that this precious metal could remain buoyant and not breach $923 mark on the downside in short to medium term. It is not a candidate to be shorted in any case in the short- term to medium-term.

(India is the world's largest consumer of gold. But it would be interesting to note that there are reports of main street people selling their physical gold in view of the attractive price of around Indian Rs.15000/10grams. There are long queues at the buying jewelers while the selling ones are grumbling about sharply dwindling buyers of gold and jewelery except for compulsion of marriage etc).

The following two links also make an interesting reading about this all time favourite investment:

1. GOLD primed to be mania asset.

2. Is Gold really a safe haven in this recession?




TECHNICALLY
For the last couple of months, the markets had been consolidating within a range and the range had been getting narrower and narrower. And also that whenever there is consolidation, there ought to be a big move after a breakout from either side. But it was also to be noted that this consolidation happened on the lower end of the charts. Since it was happening at the lower end, the breakout also was to happen on the downside rather than on the upside. For an upside breakout, the markets should have been in an uptrend, which they weren't. So, finally the breakout has happened on the downside on the Dow and the FTSE100. This time the consolidation could happen at the lower levels and the markets in short to medium term, may not rally beyond the given upper limits below. Long term investors should start accumulating in tranches, the strong counters on sharp declines from current levels.

U.S. DOW(7366): Since last October, our Long to Medium term targets for Dow had been the levels of 6000. On the way down the supports would be at 7200 and then at 7000 levels.
Inability to surpass 7750 soon, or reversal from/below that area would be a cue to initiate fresh short positions. This index needs to give a firm close above 8000 to mitigate the overtly negative outlook for short to medium term.

U.K. FTSE100 (3889): This index has also closed below its crucial level of 3900. Failure to move above 4050 soon or reversal from/below that area would be a cue to initiate fresh shorts. Immediate supports are 3734 and then 3665. The long to medium term down target for this index could be 3000 with intermediate support at 3200. It would need to give a close above 4200 to make things positive for itself.

CHINA SHANGHAI (2262): As expected, there was profit booking in this index at 2400 levels, just below our crucial resistance level of 2450 area. There is a bearish hanging on the weekly charts. In the given world scenario, it would have to be seen if it can make it above its crucial resistance of 2450. 2100 should lend good support in the days ahead. A consolidation that does not cause a breach of 1950 levels, would be a bullish sign. But the things would turn sour only on a breach of 1950 support on the downside.

JAPAN NIKKEI (7416): So far, this index has not closed below its crucial level of 7400. But this may not hold in the face of weak signals from the Dow on last Friday. Further, if it does not manage to hold above 7000 mark in the days ahead then it would enter into an uncharted territory. That would be ominous for this market.
It would need to give a close above 7925 to mitigate negative outlook in short to medium term.

HONGKONG HANGSENG (12699): Hangseng also seems to be on the verge of closing below its crucial level of 12440. Below here the support would be at 10675. It seems to be getting some encouragement from its peer markets in China though, it would have to be seen if it holds its 11000 level in short to medium term. Short term becomes positive only on a close above 14000.


INDIA BSE SENSEX (8843): The symmetrical triangle discussed last week was in the formation at the lower end of the chart -implying that a breakout should happen on the downside in the direction of the trend. So, it has happened and the lower trend line has been breached and the index has closed far below our 9000 mark. But now the moot question is: how far down it has to go, and how long could it take!

For quite sometime, our long term targets were projected to be somewhere in the area of 6000. But it may also be borne in mind that the emerging markets, including India, have optimistic outlook for the future and many of the stocks would reach mouthwatering levels below the 52week low of 7700 on Sensex. So, it may be safely assumed that there is a hope of a long term bottom in the band of 6000 and 7000. But this is not to say that the markets would start falling like salt tomorrow onwards and reach the down targets. There are multiple supports on the way down which would give bounce from time to time and small rallies also, perhaps.

The crucial mark to be watched on the downside would be 8300. A firm close below here would imply that the 52week low at 7700 is going to be busted. But a bounce from 8300 or 8500 would slowdown the falling momentum for a few weeks more. The favoured view is that there could be a bounce from these levels though, the markets may not rally beyond 9400 mark in the near term and rather consolidate at lower level.

In the given scenario, it would be too optimistic to take a contrary view because the sensex needs to give a decisive close above 9725 in the near term to negate the negative outlook; that looks unlikely in the face of gloom all around.

In the week ahead, the supports would be at 8630 and 8316 and the resistances are at 9375 and 9725. Sell on rise with stop at 9400 or final stop at 9730 for lower targets of 8550 to 8350. But short term traders should not attempt going short in the band between 8300 and 8500 until a close below 8300.
Although, a sharp recovery is not envisaged in the short to medium term, yet the Investors with long term horizon should start accumulating their well researched large cap counters at lower levels. Investment in Small and Mid cap counters would require a highly competent and professional approach at this stage though, the rating companies failed to foresee the current disaster and their ratings became a laughing stock.


INDIA NIFTY (2736): Nifty also is signaling a strategy of sell on rise with stop at 2875 or 2950 on closing basis, for the down targets of 2650 and 2510 for this week. The support is at 2658 and then at 2570. The crucial support would be at 2500. A close below here would imply that the 52week low at 2253 may not hold for long.



STOCK TECHNICAL

RIL (1253): Reliance Industries could not manage to move above its Resistance at 1400 and declined below our 1280 mark. Now it could be headed lower towards 1150 this week. Otherwise, sell it on rise with stop loss at 1350. A close below 1150 can take it to 1050 also.
Its 52week low is at 930 and it would have to be seen if it could find support between 1000 and 1100 this time!

SBI(1046): State Bank of India seems to have resumed its downtrend once again as it has the bearish connotations on its charts. Sell with stop loss at 1100, for target of 1000 or 960.
Area around 1000 has been lending support to this stock since July 2008. This time, it would have to be seen if some long term buying emerges at this level. Otherwise, a close below 960 would drag it towards support in the 850 area.

INFOSYS (1178): It could not manage to even reach the 1300 mark and found support at our 1160 mark. In the given scenario, it may not hold this support this week and drift lower to 1100. A fall below 1100 would target 1050 also. Sell on rise with stop at 1225.
Long term buying could emerge in the band between 1000 to 1100. But it needs to hold above 1000 to remain in good books of the investors.

WEEKLY OUTLOOK: 16FEB TO 20FEB 2009

FUNDAMENTALLY
Fundamentals may not be dead as yet but there surely could be smokescreens created by stimulus packages, without letting people know the real hole in the bank books. There must be a plenty of zombie banks operating and the governments are only talking of tough times but not letting the cat out of the bag.

A couple of stories below would suffice our fundamental outlook this week:

Will the stimulus bill boost the public confidence.

Fighting recession has become a new kind of warfare.

Instead of stimulus, do nothing -seriously!

The stories above may be USA specific but its economy has the final say worldwide.



GOLD
As expected, the gold price is heading towards the rounded off figure of $1000. The short term to medium term targets could be $1000 and then $1200.
However, from the long term investing point, a contrary viewpoint is also making rounds. Please click here to read the detailed story.



MARKET TECHNICALS

CHINA SHANGHAI(2321): This time, China assumes first place here among the markets, technically. It would require a careful reading besides watchful eyes. This is because the index is rising higher and higher over the last 4-5 weeks despite weak signals emerging around the world.
Its 50DMA and 100DMA have converged and the price is well above these converging lines. Its 200DMA at 2460 is also not too far above.
At the same time, it is also poised precariously at the level of its September2008 peak of 2333. A close above this mark would be a positive signal; more so if it is a weekly close.
Further, it faces significantly stiff resistance in 2450 area where 200DMA and the Fibonacci reversal point are lodged. A move above here could remain a wishful idea, at least in the near future.
Although the indicators have yet to enter the overbought zone and there are no signs of reversal, a reversal from current levels could raise doubts about its sustainability at higher levels.
However, on reversal- if and when it happens- the index needs to hold above 1995 mark in any case to prove that it has placed a bottom for itself for medium term. Because a breach of 1995 would imply that the rally is not sustainable. Trend reversal would be confirmed on a breach of 1900 support.
The recent rise in China Indexes could also be seen through the eyes of some fundamental analysts and experts who doubt it. Please click here to read this view point in detail.


U.S. DOW(7850): Formation of bearish engulfing candle on the weekly charts of this index is a strong bear signal. Momentum indicators(MIs) are also pointing downwards and for over four weeks now, the index has not been able to give a close above its crucial resistance at 8400.
The given situation implies that the index might continue to drift lower in the week ahead. It would not be a surprise if it reaches and breaches its 52 week low at 7400 levels.
As mentioned in the outlook many weeks ago here, this index could land around 6000 levels in medium to long term if 7400 is breached on closing basis. To negate this negative outlook, this index needs to give a close above 8400.
Immediate resistance for the week is at 8240. Supports are at 7660 and then at 7390.


INDIA BSE SENSEX(9635): Will this index try to do Shanghai against all odds? Perhaps not! Because fundamentally, the outlook is very unclear in view of the impending general elections sometime this spring season. But technically, its weekly MIs are in the neutral area with positive divergence, implying that it can remain in sideways mode with positive bias in the near term.
However, on the weekly charts, the index is within a symmetrical triangle since first week of November (symm. triangle formation from last week of Oct has neutralised in the last week of Jan) and the last wave is in uptrend that can terminate in 10100 area or even before that. The resistance on the way up is at 9800.
This index would also take cues from the world markets and do nothing on its own for a few more weeks. Fresh longs above 9800 would require very watchful eyes as the index can reverse from any of the levels above here.
To sum it up, the strategy for the days ahead could be: Sell on rise with stop at 10200 and Buy on decline with stop at 9000. Another support before 9000 is at 9300 also where buying for short term can emerge.
Breakout above 10200 though not envisaged, has targets of 10700 and then perhaps 11500 also. But a breakout below 9000 would imply another bout of selling for new lows up to 6000 in the medium term.


JAPAN NIKKEI(7779): The weekly chart on this index also has formed a bearish engulfing candle. It is a signal for reversal down. MIs are giving mixed signals but in the negative territory.
Supports are at 7670 and then at 7400. Failure of 7400 would threaten its 52 week low at 7000.
It needs to close above 8500 to mitigate the negative outlook for this index.


HONGKONG HANGSENG(13555): It seems to be drawing some inspiration from Shanghai index, but was unable to surpass its crucial resistance level at 14100.
MIs are pointing up in the neutral zone, but in the face of weak triggers from around the world, it could also drift lower if fails to breach the above mentioned resistance at 14100 soon. Supports would be at 12730 and then at 12440. Failure of 12440 would threaten its 52week low at 10676.

INDIA NIFTY(2948): Similar to BSE SENSEX, this index is also charting a symmetrical triangle. But this one seems to be nearing its upper boundary soon. So, one needs to be very cautious from here upwards.
It faces resistances at 2970 and then at 3030. Failure to move past 3000 would be a signal of impending weakness.
The range for this index is 2800 and 3050 in the very short term. However, the medium term range is between 2200 and 3200.
The strategy would be to sell on rise with final stop at 3200 and buy on decline with final stop at 2760. Another support at 2800 could also lend support as bears could offload some of their shorts here also.
Only a close below 2760 would threaten the 52week low at 2200.



STOCK TECHNICAL

RELIANCE(1390): Reliance Industries manged to close near its crucial resistance area around 1400. If it manages to move above this level then it could be headed towards its medium term ceiling at 1500. But it may not be a confident journey upwards as it could reverse from any level below 1500. It has multiple supports as well. Short positions could be initiated for short term small gains once it nears 1500 with stoploss of 1505.

SBI(1194): State Bank of India also managed to close well above our expectations. Now it faces resistance near 1250. A reversal from here would pull it down towards 1150 and 1100, while on the other hand a move past here could take it up to 1350.

INFOSYS(1254): It is finding it difficult to sustain above 1300 confidently. Yet a firm close above 1300 could take it up to 1450. Supports are at 1220 and 1160.

To sum up the outlook for the stocks above, the situation is similar to the indexes: Sell on rise and Buy on decline with strict stop losses as long as they stay within the given outer levels above.

WEEKLY OULOOK: 09FEB TO 13FEB 2009

FUNDAMENTALLY
The current mood is upbeat in view of the U.S. stimulus package, that, some think would wash all the sins of the banking sector and as if they would be soon lending blindly as before. A number of analysts are even predicting a big rally starting next week, just by analyzing the index charts only. While some have even placed a bottom for the markets swearing by Warren Buffet.

However, the cautious ones question the current earnings and the value of stocks in relation to the impending deterioration in employment and no sight of any booming business-sector for the next many quarters to come. They have even questioned the ratings of many companies like GE etc.
Above all, there are still some doubts about certain banks if they would be able to survive this turmoil. Oil servicing companies, the darlings of the last bull market are being swiftly downgraded in ratings. Sectors like Banking and Auto are under pressure to mend their ways, while the IT sector could be facing repricing requests amid declining orders. Trade balance numbers are awaited anxiously every time and the threat of new trade barriers emerge at every meeting. Also that the emerging economies be seen differently from case to case.

Therefore, whatever the 'index' chartists predict, the fundamental situation of almost all the businesses still remains absolutely unclear as the depth of the pit is not in sight yet. Only the 'very long term' investors could be advised to cherry pick their well researched stocks, sectors and the markets in the current situation. But it could be very painful for short to medium term investors in such a highly unpredictable situation.

Finally, the answer lies in the forthcoming economic data world wide. Markets are keeping a watch particularly on the U.S. 'housing', 'unemployment' and 'retail sales' or 'consumer spending' etc. over the next few weeks at least. Over the next few weeks, there could be some news also from the European financial sector which is not keeping a good health either.


TECHNICALLY
Technically, the short to medium term trend is sideways within a narrow range. This trend is causing desperation and despondency among the short term traders (the poison could build up again in desperation). No big move in either direction is in sight in the near future except that the Obama package may perhaps move these markets a little up.

Almost all the markets except China are moving in a same pattern and rhythm. But China has been in a strong uptrend and about to enter into the overbought region soon.
The other markets discussed below are showing signs of starting an uptrend but are faced with some formidable resistances as usual. The sideways to negative signals are emerging also from some bellwether stocks.

Would the Obama package help these markets to blow off these resistances? Or, would the negative news weigh heavier on the markets? Its almost 50-50 for the week ahead but breaking out of the range seems unlikely.

Overall mood is passive and options writers are back into business. But writing options is strictly meant for savvy traders as these strategies can cause unlimited financial loss.


MARKET TECHNICAL

U.S. DOW (8281): It faces resistance in the zone between 8450 and 8500. Inability to surpass this zone would be a negative signal. A move above this zone, however, could help it move towards 9000 in the medium term. But the short term turns positive above 8650 only.
Daily Momentum indicators (MIs) are trending up in positive territory and the Weekly MIs are trying to enter into the positive territory but still in the negative zone. This implies that a sustainable trade above the current levels next week could save this market from trending lower in the short term and help surpass the 8500 mark though, any sharp rally is not anticipated soon.

U.K. FTSE100 (4292): MIs on its chart are displaying strength. Seems to be headed towards 4600 if manages to close above 4400. The resistance is at 4317. Go long on a close above here with stop loss at 4300.

JAPAN NIKKEI (8077): Weekly MIs have almost turned positive. Weekly indicators are much trustworthy than daily ones in a sideways market but it faces resistances in 8300 area and then at 8500. Inability to move past the 8300/8350 area would be a cue to remain short in this market. Short term turns positive only on a close above 8700.

HONGKONG HANGSENG (13655): Daily MIs are trending up but weekly MIs are still in the negative zone though in an uptrend mode. Area from 14000 to 14100 poses resistance in the days ahead. Short term turns positive on a close above 14500 only.

CHINA SHANGHAI (2181): As said earlier that it is in a strong short term uptrend and is headed towards 2300. A close below 1900 only would raise doubts about its recovery. Otherwise, it seems to have formed a bottom for itself at 1600 levels. However, keeping in view the overall scenario worldwide, it would be a matter of caution to take an extremely positive view until other markets also recover and in view of its dependence on exports.

INDIA BSE SENSEX (9301): Weekly MIs are seeking to enter the positive territory but with flat formation, implying low conviction to do so. Its inability to close past 9500 would be a cue to remain short. Another resistance would be at 9800. This index needs to move past 9800 to turn the short term outlook somewhat positive. On the other hand, a breach of 8632 on the downside would signal the end of short term uptrend.

INDIA NIFTY (2843): This index can attempt to move towards 2885 or up to 2967. The ceiling is in the 3070 area. Failure to move above 2900 would be a cue to remain short in this market. On the other hand, a breach of 2662 on the downside would signal the end of uptrend.
The range for medium term is between 2500 and 3100. Technically savvy traders may look to write calls of strike 2950 and above on rise with final stop at 3100. But writing puts is not suggested. Writing options is a risky affair and can cause unlimited loss as well. Use your own discretion.


STOCK TECHNICAL

RELIANCE(1343): Even if it moves towards 1365 or 1400, it can reverse from any of these areas towards 1250 and 1200 on the downside. It is stuck in a range between 1100 to 1500. There is no clear outlook for this stock this week as it can trend sideways for a few more weeks.

INFOSYS(1287): It is facing resistance at 1300 and unless it moves past here, it could drift down towards 1160. The ceiling is at 1400. It is also stuck in a range between 1000 and 1400. It can also trend sideways within this range for a few more weeks. Supports are at 1220 and 1160.

SBI(1118): This stock can decline towards 1000 over the next days. 'Very Long' term pick at 1000 area is possible. Needs to move past 1200 to look slightly positive. The sideways range is 900 to 1400.


GOLD: Money seems to be moving towards the precious metal though, it is reluctant at the moment to cross over $920 immediately. Buy on declines up to $850 levels with final stop at $790. Beyond $920, the Long term "rounded off targets" are $1000 and then $1200.

WEEKLY OUTLOOK: 02FEB TO 06FEB 2009

FUNDAMENTALLY
Although the markets are trying to move up sometimes on some positive cue, yet its proving to be a slippery climb every time markets move up. Obama's efforts evoke positive response occasionally from the markets but the deteriorating economic data from around the world is weighing heavy on that.

Earnings in India have not been that bad over all, but the guidance given by some front runners should be an alarm for the next quarters. The earnings in Japan and the U.S. particularly have been disappointing.

Another doubt which is making rounds is that there is no clarity about the health status of hedge-funds and sovereign-funds amid this turmoil. Even the big brains at Davos are groping in the dark to find the exact depth of this pit.

But there are signs of liquidity easing somewhat but no one is willing to lend amid deteriorating economic figures and the inability of economists to gauge the exact magnitude of the impending turmoil.

Therefore, every thing depends upon the "economic data" in the weeks ahead which would guide the markets. Stimulus packages would only give some upward bounce technically for a short term but not initiate a rally unless there is a bottom in sight in the housing data, the consumer confidence and the employment figures etc.

GOLD: Long term investors may accumulate gold on every decline up to $850 with final stop loss at $790. Long term target is $1000 and then $1200.


TECHNICALLY
Almost all the charts of major indexes are forming a somewhat 'descending triangle' like pattern for over three months now. But there doesn't seem to be any mention of this when reading some important technical analysts. Perhaps this could be a mirage like situation but the pattern is definitely descending if not a perfect triangle. Therefore, this pattern could be pointing towards another trough in the medium to longer term, lower than the OCT/NOV lows.
However, the overall outlook is neutral but with a slight tilt towards negative sentiment. Yet the uptrend track is still slippery until the given important resistances are blown off decisively.

U.S. DOW (8000): Could not close above our given level above 8400 and reversed from that area to close just at the psychological mark 8000. Things would turn neutral for this index only on a close above 8500 resistance levels. Until then it could drift lower towards its previous low of 7400 levels if there is no sustainable bounce from 7850. Watch out for a sudden bounce from 7850 levels though, the Momentum Indicators(MIs) have started diverging towards the negative zone; yet not very pointedly.

U.K. FTSE100 (4150): This index also could not close above our given 4300 level and drifted lower to close near its support at 4100. Failure to hold 4100 on closing basis would pull the index lower towards its crucial support at 3800 levels. But also, watch out 3957 mark for any bounce though, the MIs are diverging negatively but still not overtly negative; so to speak. A sustainable bounce from this level could help it remain in neutral mode for some more time. But it would require to close above 4350 resistance level to turn short term trend positive in this index.

JAPAN NIKKEI (7994): This market also failed to close above our 8350 mark last week and reversed to close at psychological level almost 8000. Although the MIs are not overtly negative, it could be headed down towards 7400 support level if didn't get a bounce from 7671 mark. But it would need to close above 8350 mark to turn things positive for itself in the short term.

HONGKONG HANGSENG (13278): Here also the MIs are still in the negative territory but turned flat. The outlook is neutral as long as 11800 level is holding on the downside. Breach of this mark would imply test of previous lows.

CHINA SHANGHAI (1990): As said earlier, this market is presently the strongest one among the lot. Just poised below its resistance at 2000 is a positive signal. A move past here would take it towards 2100. If there is a firm weekly close above 2100 in the coming days then it would deemed to have put in place its bottom at October lows(1665) for this bear market. However, there would be certain more requirements of fullfilling some important technical ceremonies before jumping the gun at 2100. For example, a reversal back from 2100 area and then again a close above 2100 with good volumes would be a confirmation of medium term uptrend. Until then, just remain long with stop loss placed at 1900. Also keep watching the volume on rise.

INDIA BSE SENSEX (9424): Formation on the weekly charts point towards a positive outlook. It has been respecting 8500 levels since November. But over the last three weeks, it has been facing resistance in the area little above 9400 where it has closed this week as well. So, it would have to be seen if it can remain above this level this coming week as well; and that would be a very positive signal.
MIs are turning positive but the resistances are at 9550 and 9768. But a close above 10700 is needed to make things positive for this index in the medium term.
On the other hand, a close below 8630 would be the end of this short term uptrend. Further, a breach of 8500 would bring 6000 mark in the reckoning.

INDIA NIFTY (2875): Main Resistance for the week is at 2904. A close above here would be a positive signal and could take the index to 3147 again. medium term would turn positive only above 3147. For the week ahead, the band between 2772 and 2800 should lend support. A close below would signal the weakening of short term uptrend. A close below 2660 would terminate the present uptrend.


STOCK TECHNICAL

RELIANCE: A robust close above 1274 last week has negated the negative outlook in the short term. It may rise up to 1400 this week. But be watch ful in this area. Stop loss for swing traders is 1200. Buy on a decline with a stop here.

INFOSYS: Once past 1320 on closing basis, it could move up to 1400 and 1450. Accumulate on decline for long term with final stop at 1190.

SBI : It is still in negative mode and needs to close above 1250 to negate this view. Buy only above 1250 for a target of 1375. Medium term turns positive only above here.