S&P CNX NIFTY (BSE SENSEX)
3254(10750): Near term outlook turns positive only on a close above here. But moving upto here would be a herculean task for the markets and therefore, looks unlikely soon.
2972(9900): Markets would be under pressure to make new lows again if fails to move above here. Go short if fails this resistance.
2584(8701): Current levels.
Supports: There are immediate supports at 2525(8565) and 2300(7650) area. But the long term investing may start in bellwether stocks on a decline below current levels.
Where the markets would stop below the current levels is still a matter of debate. But it is likely that it should hold long term supports somewhere between 1900 and 2100(6000 and 7000) in a worst case scenario.
Oct 26, 2008
GLOBAL WATCH: 27OCT TO 31OCT
GLOBAL WATCH LIST FOR THE WEEK
The support levels given below are far below the current levels(except in Japanese N225). Markets are expected to build support/troughs above or around those levels. Things are more likely to remain under pressure until the upper outer limits (given below) are breached.
U.S. DOW(8379): In the worst case scenario the outermost support is in the band between 7400-7500. (Upper outer limit is 9306).
U.K. FTSE100(3883): Outermost support in the band between 3300-3400 should hold in the medium term. (Upper outer limit is 4350).
JAPAN N225(7649): Just holding above its crucial support of 7600 is not a positive signal. On a breach of this support, it would be headed towards 6850. (Upper outer limit is 9360).
HONGKONG HANGSENG(12618): should hold the support at 11000 levels in medium term. (Upper outer limit is 14000).
CHINA SHANGHAI(1840): Breach of support at 1800 would drag it lower towards 1600 in medium term. (Upper outer limit is 2000).
The support levels given below are far below the current levels(except in Japanese N225). Markets are expected to build support/troughs above or around those levels. Things are more likely to remain under pressure until the upper outer limits (given below) are breached.
U.S. DOW(8379): In the worst case scenario the outermost support is in the band between 7400-7500. (Upper outer limit is 9306).
U.K. FTSE100(3883): Outermost support in the band between 3300-3400 should hold in the medium term. (Upper outer limit is 4350).
JAPAN N225(7649): Just holding above its crucial support of 7600 is not a positive signal. On a breach of this support, it would be headed towards 6850. (Upper outer limit is 9360).
HONGKONG HANGSENG(12618): should hold the support at 11000 levels in medium term. (Upper outer limit is 14000).
CHINA SHANGHAI(1840): Breach of support at 1800 would drag it lower towards 1600 in medium term. (Upper outer limit is 2000).
TRADING TIPS: 27OCT TO 31OCT
SHORT TERM TRADERS ARE ADVISED TO GO FOR OPTIONS ONLY, IF THEY MUST!!! OTHERWISE, STAY AWAY FROM FUTURES UNTIL VOLATILITY SUBSIDES.
RELIANCE(1019):
Got beaten black and blue last week as expected and moved down below its crucial support at 1248. Now it should consolidate in the range between 800 and 1000 for a few weeks or more, depending upon the sentiment of the markets.
In case of a rise from present levels it faces resistances at 1207 and 1425. On the other hand, on a further decline it has supports at 988, 941 and 925.
It is more likely that it may hold above 800 in case of further deterioration. Therefore, long term accumulation in this stock is expected in the band between 800-1000, only if falls further.
SBIN(State bank of India) 1165
This stock also couldn't hold its crucial support at 1250 and made a low at 1100.
Favoured view is that it could remain in a range of 1000 to 1500 for quite some time now.
Expect supports at 1000, 965 and then 900 in case of a further decline. Below here, this stock would also attract long term accumulation with stop loss at 684.
INFOSYSTCH(1246)
It did not budge much amid this mayhem and closed the week with gains.
It is also likely to remain in a range of 1100 and 1425 for a few more weeks. Yet a close above 1425 could take it to 1500 levels again. Immediate support is at 1040 but longs could hold with a stop at 1100 on closing basis.
In view of a three sessions' week, there is no buy or sell call specifically. However, Diwali being the traditional buying day for retail investors, there would be a special session of one hour only on Tuesday, the 28th October. It would be from 6.15 p.m. to 7.15 p.m.
Therefore, one could look for an opportunity of buying the above mentioned bellwether stocks for muhurat trading.
These stocks have been beaten down to attractive levels for long term investing. But only cash buying for long term is advised for muhurat sake only. Other large trade setups could wait until markets stabilize.
RELIANCE(1019):
Got beaten black and blue last week as expected and moved down below its crucial support at 1248. Now it should consolidate in the range between 800 and 1000 for a few weeks or more, depending upon the sentiment of the markets.
In case of a rise from present levels it faces resistances at 1207 and 1425. On the other hand, on a further decline it has supports at 988, 941 and 925.
It is more likely that it may hold above 800 in case of further deterioration. Therefore, long term accumulation in this stock is expected in the band between 800-1000, only if falls further.
SBIN(State bank of India) 1165
This stock also couldn't hold its crucial support at 1250 and made a low at 1100.
Favoured view is that it could remain in a range of 1000 to 1500 for quite some time now.
Expect supports at 1000, 965 and then 900 in case of a further decline. Below here, this stock would also attract long term accumulation with stop loss at 684.
INFOSYSTCH(1246)
It did not budge much amid this mayhem and closed the week with gains.
It is also likely to remain in a range of 1100 and 1425 for a few more weeks. Yet a close above 1425 could take it to 1500 levels again. Immediate support is at 1040 but longs could hold with a stop at 1100 on closing basis.
In view of a three sessions' week, there is no buy or sell call specifically. However, Diwali being the traditional buying day for retail investors, there would be a special session of one hour only on Tuesday, the 28th October. It would be from 6.15 p.m. to 7.15 p.m.
Therefore, one could look for an opportunity of buying the above mentioned bellwether stocks for muhurat trading.
These stocks have been beaten down to attractive levels for long term investing. But only cash buying for long term is advised for muhurat sake only. Other large trade setups could wait until markets stabilize.
Oct 19, 2008
INDEX OUTLOOK 20OCT TO 24OCT 2008
For Long Term Investors: The need of the hour is not to rely more on the TECHNICAL but on FUNDAMENTAL analysis, because many scrips have breached their long term supports or are likely to do so if sentiment remains negative. A recovery from below crucial support levels could take more than expected time quite often.
For Short Term Traders: The consensus is on a relief rally on the basis of technical indicators and the oscillators in oversold zone but... markets normally do not move according to the consensus! It can remain in the oversold zone for weeks together. So, go for NIFTY OPTIONS in November and December series, if you must and only if you are familiar with derivatives. High volatility could bring good gains for savvy options traders in such market conditions.
Also, please keep a watch on updates from time to time, if any!
WEEKLY OUTLOOK FOR NIFTY (BSE SENSEX)
3525(11560): A close above here is needed to turn the sentiment positive for short term.
3420(10895): Inability to close above this level would pull the index down again.
3074(9975): Current levels. Markets halting at or near its support is not a positive signal. Yet, a rise above here early next week could be a good omen for near term.
2940(9700): Markets could touch these levels soon.
2850(9400): An attempt could be made around this level to build a trough in this area.
2600(8800): Negative sentiment can bring down the markets to this level as well.
Though seems unlikely in the short term, a close below here would require review, particularly of the time scale for this bear market.
For Short Term Traders: The consensus is on a relief rally on the basis of technical indicators and the oscillators in oversold zone but... markets normally do not move according to the consensus! It can remain in the oversold zone for weeks together. So, go for NIFTY OPTIONS in November and December series, if you must and only if you are familiar with derivatives. High volatility could bring good gains for savvy options traders in such market conditions.
Also, please keep a watch on updates from time to time, if any!
WEEKLY OUTLOOK FOR NIFTY (BSE SENSEX)
3525(11560): A close above here is needed to turn the sentiment positive for short term.
3420(10895): Inability to close above this level would pull the index down again.
3074(9975): Current levels. Markets halting at or near its support is not a positive signal. Yet, a rise above here early next week could be a good omen for near term.
2940(9700): Markets could touch these levels soon.
2850(9400): An attempt could be made around this level to build a trough in this area.
2600(8800): Negative sentiment can bring down the markets to this level as well.
Though seems unlikely in the short term, a close below here would require review, particularly of the time scale for this bear market.
20OCT TO 24OCT 2008
WEEKLY OUTLOOK FOR WORLD MARKETS ETC.
(The levels given below are only an outcome of a technical analysis. Considering the prevalent sentiment besides high volatility, these levels may or may not be achieved ever. Also keep a watch on the words like near, short, medium and long term).
U.S. DOW (8852): Downward pressure is likely to continue. Breach of 8500 on downside would be an indication that the recent low at 7800 levels would not hold in the near term. Then it would be headed towards 7000-7200 levels where considerable buying pressure could emerge. (Short term negativity is mitigated only if there is a sustainable close above 9925 levels, which looks unlikely soon).
U.K. FTSE100 (4063): Made a new low at 3808 last week. Downward pressure is apparent on the charts. Failure of 3808 would drag it towards the band between 3400 and 3300. Expect some buying pressure in this area. (Though unlikely, the short term negativity is mitigated only on a sustainable close above 4550).
JAPAN NIKKEI (8694): By moving little higher last week, this index seems to have made some more room for a sympathetic decline with the expected decline in the world markets. It is likely to decline towards 7600 in the short term, where buying pressure could emerge. (Though unlikely in the near term, a sustainable close above 9600 is needed to make things positive for itself in the short term).
HONGKONG HANGSENG (14554): It is also likely to breach its recent lows at 14400 levels. Then it would be headed towards 11000 levels with some midway support in 13000 region. (Short term negativity is mitigated only on a sustainable close above 17150).
CHINA SHANGHAI (1931): Its dependence on exports to western markets is weighing heavy on this market. It is likely to breach its recent low level at 1800. Then its medium term target would be 1700 and then 1600.
GOLD: Moved below the psychological support at $800 and our stop-loss triggered. More likely to remain subdued in short term. A breach below $740 would help take out support at $700 and this would drag it lower towards $600 in short to medium term. Long term target of $1000 and then 1200 is still intact unless $500 is breached.
EURUSD: Loitering at lower support levels. Breach of 1.325 on the downside would offset more weakness in Euro and move further down towards 1.30 and even 1.25 in near to medium term. A close above 1.355 could bring some relief in the short term.
CRUDE OIL: Some buoyancy is expected in the near term in view of the OPEC meeting scheduled next week. Medium to Long term down target is $50.
ECONOMIC DATA: Needless to say that the U.S. economic calendar(below) would be watched every day for all the negative news rather than the positive ones. It is so because positive news in the recent past did not turn the tables rather the slightest negatives caused sharp cuts in equity markets.
(The levels given below are only an outcome of a technical analysis. Considering the prevalent sentiment besides high volatility, these levels may or may not be achieved ever. Also keep a watch on the words like near, short, medium and long term).
U.S. DOW (8852): Downward pressure is likely to continue. Breach of 8500 on downside would be an indication that the recent low at 7800 levels would not hold in the near term. Then it would be headed towards 7000-7200 levels where considerable buying pressure could emerge. (Short term negativity is mitigated only if there is a sustainable close above 9925 levels, which looks unlikely soon).
U.K. FTSE100 (4063): Made a new low at 3808 last week. Downward pressure is apparent on the charts. Failure of 3808 would drag it towards the band between 3400 and 3300. Expect some buying pressure in this area. (Though unlikely, the short term negativity is mitigated only on a sustainable close above 4550).
JAPAN NIKKEI (8694): By moving little higher last week, this index seems to have made some more room for a sympathetic decline with the expected decline in the world markets. It is likely to decline towards 7600 in the short term, where buying pressure could emerge. (Though unlikely in the near term, a sustainable close above 9600 is needed to make things positive for itself in the short term).
HONGKONG HANGSENG (14554): It is also likely to breach its recent lows at 14400 levels. Then it would be headed towards 11000 levels with some midway support in 13000 region. (Short term negativity is mitigated only on a sustainable close above 17150).
CHINA SHANGHAI (1931): Its dependence on exports to western markets is weighing heavy on this market. It is likely to breach its recent low level at 1800. Then its medium term target would be 1700 and then 1600.
GOLD: Moved below the psychological support at $800 and our stop-loss triggered. More likely to remain subdued in short term. A breach below $740 would help take out support at $700 and this would drag it lower towards $600 in short to medium term. Long term target of $1000 and then 1200 is still intact unless $500 is breached.
EURUSD: Loitering at lower support levels. Breach of 1.325 on the downside would offset more weakness in Euro and move further down towards 1.30 and even 1.25 in near to medium term. A close above 1.355 could bring some relief in the short term.
CRUDE OIL: Some buoyancy is expected in the near term in view of the OPEC meeting scheduled next week. Medium to Long term down target is $50.
ECONOMIC DATA: Needless to say that the U.S. economic calendar(below) would be watched every day for all the negative news rather than the positive ones. It is so because positive news in the recent past did not turn the tables rather the slightest negatives caused sharp cuts in equity markets.
TRADING TIPS 20OCT TO 24OCT 2008
RELIANCE(1306): Opinion is negative with sell mode.
Things do not look encouraging for this stock in short to medium term.
Immediate resistances for the week would be 1433, 1478 and 1523 but the signals are pointing towards more downside. A close above 1478 is needed this week to turn things positive for itself in the near term though, medium term would still remain negative until gives a close above 1850. A close below 1248 would be fateful for this stock. Then it would be headed towards the band between 950-850 medium to long term.
SBIN(1419): Opinion is neutral with positive bias.
Some negative divergence is starting to appear in momentum indicators but it still has sufficient strength left to maintain its 1250 levels on closing basis. Immediate supports are at 1400, 1348 and 1181. But a close below 1348 would imply that it could remain sideways between 1200 and 1600 for a few more weeks. On the other hand, a close above 1590 would take it to 1800 levels in medium term. Existing longs should hold with stop at 1250. Fresh longs be initiated only on a close above 1590 or on a rise from lower levels of 1250.
INFOSYSTCH(1203): Outlook is sideways within a range of 300 points.
Quarterly results were up to the expectations that there is still sufficient steam left in this counter though, for a long term perspective. But for near to medium term it is springing up mixed signals on the charts.
Immediate support is at 1182 and then 1040. But it should keep closing above 1100 levels to remain neutral and buoyant. Otherwise, a close below 1100 would drag it lower towards 950 levels. On the upside 1415 would be its upper range for short term.
Things do not look encouraging for this stock in short to medium term.
Immediate resistances for the week would be 1433, 1478 and 1523 but the signals are pointing towards more downside. A close above 1478 is needed this week to turn things positive for itself in the near term though, medium term would still remain negative until gives a close above 1850. A close below 1248 would be fateful for this stock. Then it would be headed towards the band between 950-850 medium to long term.
SBIN(1419): Opinion is neutral with positive bias.
Some negative divergence is starting to appear in momentum indicators but it still has sufficient strength left to maintain its 1250 levels on closing basis. Immediate supports are at 1400, 1348 and 1181. But a close below 1348 would imply that it could remain sideways between 1200 and 1600 for a few more weeks. On the other hand, a close above 1590 would take it to 1800 levels in medium term. Existing longs should hold with stop at 1250. Fresh longs be initiated only on a close above 1590 or on a rise from lower levels of 1250.
INFOSYSTCH(1203): Outlook is sideways within a range of 300 points.
Quarterly results were up to the expectations that there is still sufficient steam left in this counter though, for a long term perspective. But for near to medium term it is springing up mixed signals on the charts.
Immediate support is at 1182 and then 1040. But it should keep closing above 1100 levels to remain neutral and buoyant. Otherwise, a close below 1100 would drag it lower towards 950 levels. On the upside 1415 would be its upper range for short term.
Oct 12, 2008
WEEKLY INDEX OUTLOOK: 13OCT TO 17OCT 2008
S&P CNX NIFTY (BSE SENSEX)
Near Term and Medium Term, both are very negative.
3620(11503) Resistance. Surpassing this resistance would be a great achievement but...?
3510(11262) Resistance. Inability to move above here would be a cue to remain short.
3280(10527) Current levels.
3000(10000) Support. But a psychological support only.
2940(9700) Support. A short term trough is likely at this level. Though unlikely in near future, a close below 2900 would raise doubts over recovery in the long term.
2600(8800) This level would be in the reckoning in case the above support does not hold.
Near Term and Medium Term, both are very negative.
3620(11503) Resistance. Surpassing this resistance would be a great achievement but...?
3510(11262) Resistance. Inability to move above here would be a cue to remain short.
3280(10527) Current levels.
3000(10000) Support. But a psychological support only.
2940(9700) Support. A short term trough is likely at this level. Though unlikely in near future, a close below 2900 would raise doubts over recovery in the long term.
2600(8800) This level would be in the reckoning in case the above support does not hold.
GLOBAL WATCH LIST: 13OCT TO 17OCT 2008
WORLD MARKETS
(Please watch out carefully for the words like Near, Short, Medium and Long term etc. Misreading of these words can cause wrong speculation. Every care may be taken to understand the deliberately worded phrases below. A cursory look at these levels would not help).
U.S. DOW (8451):
Near Term:Resistances for the week are 8815, 9100 and 9400. Surpassing the second resistance would bring some relief for near term and a move towards 11000. Inability to do so soon would keep it under immense pressure to break the recent low at 7880.
Medium Term: A close below 7880 level would drag it lower towards 7000 levels where strong buying for long term could take place. But in the event of a close below 6940 would have much serious impact on recovery in the long term.
U.K. FTSE100 (3932):
Near Term: Resistances are at 4041, 4093, and 4145. Inability to move above 4093 would keep it under pressure to break the recent low at 3874.
Medium Term: In case of a close below this recent low of 3874, this index will trend towards the Year 2003 low levels of 3400 to 3300 where buying for a long term perspective could take place. On the other hand, a close below 3300 support would drag it towards 2900 levels.
JAPAN NIKKEI (8276): Likely to move down towards the Year 2003 low point at 7600. The count of resistances for this market are meaningless at this juncture. Expect some buying pressure at this lower level.
HONGKONG HANGSENG (14797): Inability to move above 15800 in near term would keep this index under pressure to breach the recent lows at 14400. Then a failure of support at 14000 would drag it lower towards 11000 levels.
In case of a failure of 11000, the medium term supports below 11000 levels would be at 8300.
CHINA SHANGHAI (2001): Holding on to its support at 2000 is not a positive sign. A close below 2000 would drag it to 1800 levels again. China's heavy dependence on exports to the Western countries, particularly the U.S. is a story in itself. A close below 1800 would drag it towards 1500 in medium to long term.
Gold: Existing short term long positions may keep a stop loss point at $800. Wait until the next call because some money from this precious metal seems to have moved towards equity markets on Friday.
EUR/USD: The USD could find support around 1.33 against EUR. But USD is expected to grow weaker in the long term.
CRUDE OIL: It is still in a primary downtrend. A breach of $70 on downside would take it towards $50 in medium to long term.
This weakness in oil prices and cooling of inflation could help India to recover the losses early comparatively.
(Please watch out carefully for the words like Near, Short, Medium and Long term etc. Misreading of these words can cause wrong speculation. Every care may be taken to understand the deliberately worded phrases below. A cursory look at these levels would not help).
U.S. DOW (8451):
Near Term:Resistances for the week are 8815, 9100 and 9400. Surpassing the second resistance would bring some relief for near term and a move towards 11000. Inability to do so soon would keep it under immense pressure to break the recent low at 7880.
Medium Term: A close below 7880 level would drag it lower towards 7000 levels where strong buying for long term could take place. But in the event of a close below 6940 would have much serious impact on recovery in the long term.
U.K. FTSE100 (3932):
Near Term: Resistances are at 4041, 4093, and 4145. Inability to move above 4093 would keep it under pressure to break the recent low at 3874.
Medium Term: In case of a close below this recent low of 3874, this index will trend towards the Year 2003 low levels of 3400 to 3300 where buying for a long term perspective could take place. On the other hand, a close below 3300 support would drag it towards 2900 levels.
JAPAN NIKKEI (8276): Likely to move down towards the Year 2003 low point at 7600. The count of resistances for this market are meaningless at this juncture. Expect some buying pressure at this lower level.
HONGKONG HANGSENG (14797): Inability to move above 15800 in near term would keep this index under pressure to breach the recent lows at 14400. Then a failure of support at 14000 would drag it lower towards 11000 levels.
In case of a failure of 11000, the medium term supports below 11000 levels would be at 8300.
CHINA SHANGHAI (2001): Holding on to its support at 2000 is not a positive sign. A close below 2000 would drag it to 1800 levels again. China's heavy dependence on exports to the Western countries, particularly the U.S. is a story in itself. A close below 1800 would drag it towards 1500 in medium to long term.
Gold: Existing short term long positions may keep a stop loss point at $800. Wait until the next call because some money from this precious metal seems to have moved towards equity markets on Friday.
EUR/USD: The USD could find support around 1.33 against EUR. But USD is expected to grow weaker in the long term.
CRUDE OIL: It is still in a primary downtrend. A breach of $70 on downside would take it towards $50 in medium to long term.
This weakness in oil prices and cooling of inflation could help India to recover the losses early comparatively.
TRADING TIPS: 13OCT TO 17OCT 2008
RELIANCE(1528)
On closing below 1700 it didn't take much time to touch the lower levels of 1500 last week.
Near term trend in this stock is down.
In near to medium term it can edge lower towards 1310 with midway support at 1450 levels. Its negativity of short term is mitigated only on a close above 1800; but seems unlikely in the near term due to the prevailing sentiment.
Though, not likely so soon, if it gives a close below 1300 then the levels of 1000 would come into the reckoning.
SBIN(1352.5)
This stock has been bravely working hard to maintain its support levels. It stuck to its bastion in spite of a decline to 1181 on intraday basis. Keep holding the longs until it keeps closing above 1250 levels for the targets of 1570 and 1800. Resistances would be at 1400 and 1450.
INFOSYS(1225)
Made an intraday low at 1040 and recovered to close above its long term support at 1100 levels. Now it could be charting an upmove in the short term towards resistances at 1332, 1422 and 1512. Inability to move past 1332 and 1422 would be a signal of impending weakness for the long term.
On closing below 1700 it didn't take much time to touch the lower levels of 1500 last week.
Near term trend in this stock is down.
In near to medium term it can edge lower towards 1310 with midway support at 1450 levels. Its negativity of short term is mitigated only on a close above 1800; but seems unlikely in the near term due to the prevailing sentiment.
Though, not likely so soon, if it gives a close below 1300 then the levels of 1000 would come into the reckoning.
SBIN(1352.5)
This stock has been bravely working hard to maintain its support levels. It stuck to its bastion in spite of a decline to 1181 on intraday basis. Keep holding the longs until it keeps closing above 1250 levels for the targets of 1570 and 1800. Resistances would be at 1400 and 1450.
INFOSYS(1225)
Made an intraday low at 1040 and recovered to close above its long term support at 1100 levels. Now it could be charting an upmove in the short term towards resistances at 1332, 1422 and 1512. Inability to move past 1332 and 1422 would be a signal of impending weakness for the long term.
Oct 5, 2008
WEEKLY INDEX OUTLOOK: 06OCT TO 10OCT
S&P CNX NIFTY (BSE SENSEX)
4180(13500) Resistance. Though less likely in very near term, a close above here is required to turn the sentiment positive for near term.
4070(13200) Resistance. Failure to surpass this level would be a cue to remain short.
3818(12526) Current level. The index hovering just above crucial levels of 3800 and 12500 is a negative sign. A fall below here looks imminent.
3715(12135) Support.
3650(12000) Psychological support levels.
3450(11200) Possible target on a breach of support 3715(12135) above.
4180(13500) Resistance. Though less likely in very near term, a close above here is required to turn the sentiment positive for near term.
4070(13200) Resistance. Failure to surpass this level would be a cue to remain short.
3818(12526) Current level. The index hovering just above crucial levels of 3800 and 12500 is a negative sign. A fall below here looks imminent.
3715(12135) Support.
3650(12000) Psychological support levels.
3450(11200) Possible target on a breach of support 3715(12135) above.
GLOBAL WATCH LIST: 06OCT TO 10OCT
WORLD MARKETS
U.S. DOW (10325): Currently in downtrend. A close below 10200 would bring the next near term target 9750 into reckoning. Supports on way down would be 10100 and 9900. On the upside, resistances are at 10760, 10900 and 11000.
U.K. FTSE 100 (4980): Currently in an uptrend, but again faces the formidable resistances at 5420 and 5465. Since it breached its crucial support at 4850 last week and made a new low at 4671, technically it is more likely that it may not hold this new low and head towards 4300 support level in near to medium term. Inability to surpass the given resitances would be a cue to remain short.
JAPAN NIKKEI (10938): More likely to move down towards 10500 or lower in near term. Supports are at 10800 and 10600. Upside is capped around 12300 levels in near term.
HONGKONG HANGSENG (17682): Just poised at its support amid negativity, and likely to head down towards 16300 and 16000 levels in near term. Upside is capped at 20000 levels in near term.
CHINA SHANGHAI (2294): This market was on holiday the whole last week. It may wake to the prevailing weakness worldwide and follow suit. It is poised tad below resistance 2300. Supports are at 2115 and 2000. Failure of support 2000 would again drag it lower to 1800.
ECONOMIC DATA
The focus has shifted to the economic data especially, the GDP growth and Interest Rates; quarterly earnings season besides Trade Balance. The U.S. data for housing and employment would be keenly watched every week(see calendar below).
EUR/USD The volatility in EUR/USD is obvious due to the recent developments in the U.S.
No clear pattern is visible but it needs to breach 1.44 to cause weakness in the USD.
GOLD faced weakness due to the strength in USD. But gold would remain the favourite of long term investors in whatsoever weakness. Buy with stop at 800.
CRUDE OIL could remain subdued. A breach below $90 would drag it to $70 in the medium term.
U.S. DOW (10325): Currently in downtrend. A close below 10200 would bring the next near term target 9750 into reckoning. Supports on way down would be 10100 and 9900. On the upside, resistances are at 10760, 10900 and 11000.
U.K. FTSE 100 (4980): Currently in an uptrend, but again faces the formidable resistances at 5420 and 5465. Since it breached its crucial support at 4850 last week and made a new low at 4671, technically it is more likely that it may not hold this new low and head towards 4300 support level in near to medium term. Inability to surpass the given resitances would be a cue to remain short.
JAPAN NIKKEI (10938): More likely to move down towards 10500 or lower in near term. Supports are at 10800 and 10600. Upside is capped around 12300 levels in near term.
HONGKONG HANGSENG (17682): Just poised at its support amid negativity, and likely to head down towards 16300 and 16000 levels in near term. Upside is capped at 20000 levels in near term.
CHINA SHANGHAI (2294): This market was on holiday the whole last week. It may wake to the prevailing weakness worldwide and follow suit. It is poised tad below resistance 2300. Supports are at 2115 and 2000. Failure of support 2000 would again drag it lower to 1800.
ECONOMIC DATA
The focus has shifted to the economic data especially, the GDP growth and Interest Rates; quarterly earnings season besides Trade Balance. The U.S. data for housing and employment would be keenly watched every week(see calendar below).
EUR/USD The volatility in EUR/USD is obvious due to the recent developments in the U.S.
No clear pattern is visible but it needs to breach 1.44 to cause weakness in the USD.
GOLD faced weakness due to the strength in USD. But gold would remain the favourite of long term investors in whatsoever weakness. Buy with stop at 800.
CRUDE OIL could remain subdued. A breach below $90 would drag it to $70 in the medium term.
TRADING TIPS: 06OCT TO 10OCT
RELIANCE (1761)
Supports are at 1683 and 1647. Resistances would be 1960 and 2110.
A big deep cut last Friday itself speaks volumes about its negativity increasing week after week. In the short term it may rebound from any of the supports mentioned above, but a breach below 1700 itself would open the lower "medium to long term" targets of 1500 and 1300.
SBIN (1484)
Strangely, this stock tried to remain in an uptrend most of the time. Yet, it needs to surpass the levels of 1527 and1620 to head towards 1700 and then 1850. It has supports at 1460, 1440 and 1419. But the support at 1300 levels would be considered the last hope of short term traders. Accordingly, the traders may trade long in this stock (stop loss 1250) if and when the markets start moving up; more so above 1620.
INFOSYSTCH (1390)
Its quarterly results are due on 10th Oct this week. Weakness is apparent in this stock chart. It has resistances at 1500 and 1600 levels. A close above 1500 could bring some hope for the near term but...? Watch out for an options strategy for this stock by next Thursday on updates.
Supports are at 1683 and 1647. Resistances would be 1960 and 2110.
A big deep cut last Friday itself speaks volumes about its negativity increasing week after week. In the short term it may rebound from any of the supports mentioned above, but a breach below 1700 itself would open the lower "medium to long term" targets of 1500 and 1300.
SBIN (1484)
Strangely, this stock tried to remain in an uptrend most of the time. Yet, it needs to surpass the levels of 1527 and1620 to head towards 1700 and then 1850. It has supports at 1460, 1440 and 1419. But the support at 1300 levels would be considered the last hope of short term traders. Accordingly, the traders may trade long in this stock (stop loss 1250) if and when the markets start moving up; more so above 1620.
INFOSYSTCH (1390)
Its quarterly results are due on 10th Oct this week. Weakness is apparent in this stock chart. It has resistances at 1500 and 1600 levels. A close above 1500 could bring some hope for the near term but...? Watch out for an options strategy for this stock by next Thursday on updates.
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